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FOI-R--<strong>3880</strong>--SE Map of Central Asia 12
FOI-R--<strong>3880</strong>--SE Introduction The relation between Afghanistan and Central Asia is important for several reasons. First, Central Asia will be affected by developments in Afghanistan such as Islamism, drugs smuggling and sectarian and inter-ethnic conflict. Few are optimistic about the immediate future after the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) leave Afghanistan. Second, the five Central Asian states are weak states destabilised by several domestic economic and political challenges. Relations between them are characterised by mistrust and even enmity. Their ability to handle complex regional security challenges is often questioned. There may well be both inter- and intra-state armed conflict, even without any spillover from Afghanistan. Third, Russia’s political leadership sees Central Asia as a part of Russia’s sphere of influence and a factor in Eurasian integration. For Sweden, a neighbour of Russia in the west, it is important to understand Russia’s concerns and ambitions in other parts of the world. There are many articles published in the West assessing and commenting on Central Asian security and Afghanistan. Western interest in Central Asia in the field of security has been related to the Western presence in Afghanistan. This is likely to decrease in the future. It is important to listen to the views of those who remain involved in Central Asia in order to understand the future security challenges related to Afghanistan. The countries that will have to deal with the region’s future security challenges are foremost Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as well as the external actors Russia and China. The aim of this report is to give voice to views from Afghanistan, Central Asia, China and Russia about future security situation in the region after the withdrawal of ISAF and to discuss its implications. The preparatory phase of this study concluded that there were many important factors that had to be addressed for an analysis of security issues in Central Asia. Challenges include terrorism, Islamism, drugs smuggling, ethnic ties, weak states, porous borders, corruption, poor economic development, political repression and unrest, and the spillover of instability from Afghanistan into Central Asia. The region is often described as violent in the political sphere as well (Graubner, 2012) and has seen violent political unrest many times (see map on page 12). To further explore these issues three study trips were conducted in 2012, resulting in more than 50 interviews with politicians, researchers, journalists and government officials in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Russia (Hedenskog and Holmquist, 2012a; 2012b). The interviews made it easier to understand Central Asian views on how developments in Afghanistan might influence the region. They also helped to single out the two main challenges for Central Asia emanating from Afghanistan that became the key issues in this report: first, the illegal trade in narcotics, here referred to as the drugs trade; and, second, Islamism as both a political and a security factor. Unfortunately, it was not possible to visit Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 13
Page 1: ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanista
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Page 6 and 7: FOI-R--3880--SE Sammanfattning Denn
Page 8 and 9: FOI-R--3880--SE Summary The aim of
Page 10 and 11: FOI-R--3880--SE Contents Preface 10
Page 12 and 13: FOI-R--3880--SE Preface There seems
Page 16 and 17: FOI-R--3880--SE Overview The report
Page 18 and 19: FOI-R--3880--SE This study illustra
Page 20 and 21: FOI-R--3880--SE Acronyms and abbrev
Page 22 and 23: FOI-R--3880--SE 1 How may the withd
Page 24 and 25: FOI-R--3880--SE Afghan cities of He
Page 26 and 27: FOI-R--3880--SE as Turkmenistan’s
Page 28 and 29: FOI-R--3880--SE the border. The Far
Page 30 and 31: FOI-R--3880--SE Oguz, Esedulla (201
Page 32 and 33: FOI-R--3880--SE capabilities of the
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Page 36 and 37: FOI-R--3880--SE One of the most ser
Page 38 and 39: FOI-R--3880--SE 3 North-east Afghan
Page 40 and 41: FOI-R--3880--SE The Tajik political
Page 42 and 43: FOI-R--3880--SE The strengthening o
Page 44 and 45: FOI-R--3880--SE structures. Talk of
Page 46 and 47: FOI-R--3880--SE Chorshanbiev, Paira
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Page 50 and 51: FOI-R--3880--SE 4 Drugs trafficking
Page 52 and 53: FOI-R--3880--SE While the objective
Page 54 and 55: FOI-R--3880--SE distrust, lack of i
Page 56 and 57: FOI-R--3880--SE interstate distrust
Page 58 and 59: FOI-R--3880--SE 5 Why Islamists are
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FOI-R--3880--SE people’s ability
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FOI-R--3880--SE Hansen, L. (2000)
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FOI-R--3880--SE 6 Regional efforts
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FOI-R--3880--SE nature of the Afgha
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FOI-R--3880--SE through negotiation
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FOI-R--3880--SE The Central Asian c
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FOI-R--3880--SE C. Remaining extern
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FOI-R--3880--SE A tentative argumen
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FOI-R--3880--SE 1990s (see also Mod
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FOI-R--3880--SE relationship with A
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FOI-R--3880--SE Kazemi, Said Reza (
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FOI-R--3880--SE _ttnews[backPid]=27
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FOI-R--3880--SE with system legitim
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FOI-R--3880--SE on anti-terror acti
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FOI-R--3880--SE interventions simil
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FOI-R--3880--SE most tangible resul
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FOI-R--3880--SE Samad, Omar (2013)
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FOI-R--3880--SE republics of Centra
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FOI-R--3880--SE dominate new integr
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FOI-R--3880--SE there are concentra
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FOI-R--3880--SE School of Economics
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FOI-R--3880--SE Ivanov, Viktor (201
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FOI-R--3880--SE D. Discussion As of
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FOI-R--3880--SE drugs trade in Taji
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FOI-R--3880--SE Russian policymaker
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FOI-R--3880--SE … WITHOUT THE OUT
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FOI-R--3880--SE But the competition
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FOI-R--3880--SE References (for the
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FOI-R--3880--SE Biographies Rustam
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FOI-R--3880--SE 2012); ‘Islam in
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