foir_3880

FOI-R--3880--SE
9 Russia and Central Asia: relations,
opportunities and challenges in the
light of Afghanistan post-ISAF
Vadim Kozyulin
The growing Eurasian ambition of Russia’s political leadership is the framework
for today’s Russian efforts for a multi-level and multi-speed integration in the
post-Soviet space including Central Asia. This primarily economic integration
can work with many of the post-Soviet countries, which, after getting used to
independence, are unlikely to respond positively to Russian desires for deeper
political integration. The main potential for instability in Central Asia is not
Afghanistan but lies within the Central Asian states themselves. The reasons for
this include poverty, unemployment, corruption and poor governance. Russia’s
priorities in this are combating drugs trafficking and bolstering regional
security. Despite gloomy forecasts about Afghanistan post-ISAF, the perceived
threats from Afghanistan may serve to push the Central Asian states closer to
Russia.
On 23 June 2011, US President Barack Obama issued a statement about the
withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The aim was to complete the
withdrawal in 2014 (White House, 2011). Other nations contributing troops to
the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) followed suit. On
3 October the same year, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin published an article
outlining his vision of Eurasian integration, with the aim of building a new
Eurasian Union to be formed in 2015 (Putin, 2011). The aim of this chapter is to
discuss how these two strategies may affect the five Central Asian states and
Russia’s policy towards the region.
RUSSIAN POLICY TOWARDS CENTRAL ASIA – PART OF A WIDER
INTEGRATION EFFORT
Russia’s bilateral relations towards the five Central Asian republics have gone
through several phases since 1991. In 1992–95, political relations and economic
ties collapsed. The Russian leadership wanted to get rid of what seemed like the
dead weight of the Central Asian republics, a social and economic burden. The
contemporary ambition to build a strategic partnership with Europe and the
United States, however, quickly changed. In 1995–99 the competition with the
United States for regional dominance returned. Russia restored relations with the
95