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structures. Talk of progress is therefore unrealistic. The drugs trade cannot be
stopped completely, but only reduced, which a few individual honest counternarcotics
policemen are trying to do along with doctors treating drug addicts.
REFUGEES AND MIGRATION
International organisations, such as the Office of the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), suggest that Tajikistan could face more
refugees from Afghanistan in the coming years. In the 1990s Tajikistan had a
steady influx of Afghan refugees, but much less than Iran and Pakistan.
According to the UNHCR, Tajikistan is home to over 4,000 Afghan refugees,
with another 600 waiting to receive refugee status. There are also a few illegal
Afghan immigrants. Some 400 came in the first nine months of 2012
(Centrasia.ru, 2012). Most of them were to be forwarded to third countries.
Although the number of Afghan migrants to Tajikistan increased slightly in
2013, there is little reason to expect significant growth in the coming years.
Previous experience shows that Afghans prefer to flee to Pakistan and Iran,
where the systems for the reception of refugees are better and they will be better
able to organise their lives than they would be Tajikistan.
TAJIKISTAN’S RESPONSE TO THE CHALLENGES RELATED TO
POST-ISAF AFGHANISTAN
Along with strengthening borders and anti-drug-trafficking measures, Tajikistan
is advocating stronger international cooperation and the formation of a broad
coalition of countries interested in building a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.
For Tajikistan, it is critical to work actively with the international community to
form and train the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and other law
enforcement agencies. Tajikistan is contributing to the training of Afghan
officers, including with the BOMCA and CADAP programmes and at the OSCE
Border Management Staff College, opened in Dushanbe in 2010, where staff
from the ANSF have been trained (Tajikistan, 2012; Khovar News Agency,
2012). Tajikistan has raised the political profile of Afghanistan issues, and, in
2011, appointed a special representative of the president of Tajikistan on
Afghanistan issues (Khovar News Agency, 2012).
Regional cooperation is hampered by for example disputes about water and
hydroelectric resources and energy. Such tensions are likely to increase in
Central Asia, irrespective of developments in Afghanistan. There is also fierce
competition for exports to the fast-growing markets of Afghanistan and South
Asia. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are competing fiercely to export electricity to
Afghanistan, which has caused their relations to deteriorate, even threatening
regional security in Central Asia. In 2013, the plan was for Tajikistan to export
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