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FOI-R--3880--SE
4 Drugs trafficking in Central Asia after
2014: towards a broader and more
realistic view
Emil Dzhuraev
Central Asia’s porous borders are one main reason why the ‘northern’ transit
route for drugs from Afghanistan is growing fast. Demand is increasing,
primarily in Russia. The drugs trade will therefore continue to grow and so will
the related problems, ranging from violent crime and corruption to threats to
political stability and public health. They are exacerbated by the complacency
and even complicity of the regimes in the region. The profitability of the trade
makes it hard to counter. Its transnational nature requires a transnational
response. The regimes in Central Asia are unable to generate that response, but
will use the problem to justify harsh domestic policies. The way ahead is a
pragmatically oriented international approach with all the countries affected,
including outside the region. This should include institutional development,
transnational communication and security cooperation. Without this, fighting the
drugs trade is futile.
Drugs trafficking from Afghanistan through Central Asia is rightly one of the top
concerns in thinking about the year 2014 and afterwards. Whether it stands first
or second or third in importance is impossible to determine meaningfully, but
that it is a major threat is undisputed. However, amid plentiful rhetoric from
political leaders, security experts and international stakeholders about post-2014
drugs trafficking, it is very important to consider it soberly to see what this
phenomenon represents and what general problems of security and governance it
brings in its wake.
This chapter attempts to situate the drugs problem in its actual context and thus
to highlight some directions in which the perception of this threat in Central Asia
must be broadened. Drugs trafficking is extremely difficult to tackle because it is
transnational and requires the concerted efforts of all affected countries; such
cooperation has been difficult to achieve, and is likely to continue to be lacking.
It is also a very profitable illicit business, which means that in poor economies
with weak institutions drugs trafficking is likely to thrive. These points are the
key message of this chapter and are elaborated in the second section below.
The first section provides a brief outline of the drugs problem in the region to
date. Here the point is rather to set the context for this chapter than to supply
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