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FOI-R--<strong>3880</strong>--SE Summary The aim of this report is to provide perspectives from Afghanistan, Central Asia, China and Russia about future regional security in Central Asia in the light of the withdrawal of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and to discuss its implications. The study deals with some long term security factors as of mid-2013. It will therefore not deal with the implications of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine 2014 and how it may affect Russia and how it interacts with Central Asia and the world. This report has four main conclusions. First, in the spring 2014 as ISAF is gradually withdrawing, the security situation in Afghanistan is generally seen as deteriorating. Western security interest in adjacent Central Asia, hitherto a support area for operations in Afghanistan, will diminish. Increasing instability in Afghanistan may affect Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). Second, the region will be left to itself and to remaining external actors – Russia, China and Afghanistan, all with limited abilities to influence security. The Central Asian states’ low capabilities and current or latent instability create an emerging security vacuum in the region. Third, the most important Afghanistan-related security challenge for Central Asia, and the world, is the drugs trade. It affects public health, spreads HIV and increases the influence of organised crime and breeds corruption at all levels. Another important challenge for the region is militant Islamism, often linked to small groups that can act as destabilisation multipliers able to exploit current tensions. Islamism is also a long-term political challenge to the region’s regimes. Fourth, today’s level of regional cooperation is not enough to handle the region’s security challenges. Capabilities and trust are missing. The outside world – international organisations such as the UN or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), or powers such as Russia or China – will play a key role in any multilateral security cooperation. The perspectives of Afghanistan’s Central Asian northern neighbours vary. Turkmenistan, a weak state that has tried to isolate itself from Afghanistan, remains very vulnerable to influences from its south-eastern neighbour. Uzbekistan has tighter control over its border with Afghanistan than Turkmenistan, but also sees opportunities in Afghanistan. Tajikistan, the central country in the Afghanistan – Central Asia nexus, is closest to Afghanistan geographically, culturally and linguistically. For a weak vulnerable state as Tajikistan, security requires a secure Afghanistan. How can Central Asia handle the two main Afghanistan related security challenges, drugs trade and militant Islamism In addition, there are many other security challenges, such as porous borders, weak states, pervasive corruption, latent ethnic, as well as territorial and resource conflicts. The effects of the drugs trade are a problem, that is too big for Central Asia’s states to handle, both 6
FOI-R--<strong>3880</strong>--SE individually and collectively. Handling it requires addressing not only supply (Afghanistan) but also demand (Iran, Russia and Europe) and the transit in between (such as Central Asia). Central Asian regimes see Islamism as a security challenge, but they disagree on its nature and how to handle it. Islamism has mainly domestic roots, but is often wrongly linked to Afghanistan. Regional multilateral cooperation is weak since the regimes’ prefer bilateral relations or cooperation involving either major powers or international organisations. What are the perspectives for Afghanistan, Russia and China, outside actors that remain involved in Central Asia Afghanistan can be affected by unrest in Central Asia. China handles Afghanistan challenges bilaterally, through geographical buffers and cooperation in regional multilateral forums. Russia’s priorities in the region are Eurasian integration, combatting drugs trade and regional security. Keywords: Central Asia, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, China, NATO, ISAF, illegal drugs trade, militant Islamism, CSTO, Eurasian Union, SCO, regional co-operation. 7
Page 1: ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanista
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Page 6 and 7: FOI-R--3880--SE Sammanfattning Denn
Page 10 and 11: FOI-R--3880--SE Contents Preface 10
Page 12 and 13: FOI-R--3880--SE Preface There seems
Page 14 and 15: FOI-R--3880--SE Map of Central Asia
Page 16 and 17: FOI-R--3880--SE Overview The report
Page 18 and 19: FOI-R--3880--SE This study illustra
Page 20 and 21: FOI-R--3880--SE Acronyms and abbrev
Page 22 and 23: FOI-R--3880--SE 1 How may the withd
Page 24 and 25: FOI-R--3880--SE Afghan cities of He
Page 26 and 27: FOI-R--3880--SE as Turkmenistan’s
Page 28 and 29: FOI-R--3880--SE the border. The Far
Page 30 and 31: FOI-R--3880--SE Oguz, Esedulla (201
Page 32 and 33: FOI-R--3880--SE capabilities of the
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Page 36 and 37: FOI-R--3880--SE One of the most ser
Page 38 and 39: FOI-R--3880--SE 3 North-east Afghan
Page 40 and 41: FOI-R--3880--SE The Tajik political
Page 42 and 43: FOI-R--3880--SE The strengthening o
Page 44 and 45: FOI-R--3880--SE structures. Talk of
Page 46 and 47: FOI-R--3880--SE Chorshanbiev, Paira
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Page 50 and 51: FOI-R--3880--SE 4 Drugs trafficking
Page 52 and 53: FOI-R--3880--SE While the objective
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FOI-R--3880--SE 5 Why Islamists are
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FOI-R--3880--SE however, has a phan
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FOI-R--3880--SE actually not closel
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FOI-R--3880--SE people’s ability
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FOI-R--3880--SE Hansen, L. (2000)
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FOI-R--3880--SE 6 Regional efforts
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FOI-R--3880--SE nature of the Afgha
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FOI-R--3880--SE through negotiation
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FOI-R--3880--SE The Central Asian c
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FOI-R--3880--SE C. Remaining extern
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FOI-R--3880--SE A tentative argumen
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FOI-R--3880--SE 1990s (see also Mod
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FOI-R--3880--SE relationship with A
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FOI-R--3880--SE Kazemi, Said Reza (
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FOI-R--3880--SE _ttnews[backPid]=27
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FOI-R--3880--SE with system legitim
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FOI-R--3880--SE on anti-terror acti
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FOI-R--3880--SE interventions simil
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FOI-R--3880--SE most tangible resul
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FOI-R--3880--SE Samad, Omar (2013)
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FOI-R--3880--SE republics of Centra
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FOI-R--3880--SE dominate new integr
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FOI-R--3880--SE there are concentra
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FOI-R--3880--SE School of Economics
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FOI-R--3880--SE Ivanov, Viktor (201
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FOI-R--3880--SE D. Discussion As of
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FOI-R--3880--SE drugs trade in Taji
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FOI-R--3880--SE Russian policymaker
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FOI-R--3880--SE … WITHOUT THE OUT
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FOI-R--3880--SE But the competition
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FOI-R--3880--SE References (for the
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FOI-R--3880--SE Biographies Rustam
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FOI-R--3880--SE 2012); ‘Islam in
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