foir_3880
foir_3880
foir_3880
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FOI-R--<strong>3880</strong>--SE<br />
The Central Asian countries’ interest in Afghanistan as a transit route to South<br />
Asia opens the way for further discussion of the New Silk Road initiative. 1 This<br />
discussion would be made easier if the ideological connotations were removed<br />
and the focus put on seeking solutions to specific transport, trade and politicomilitary<br />
problems.<br />
Other (non-Central Asian) countries also have a major role in shaping the<br />
approaches of the Central Asian states to Afghanistan. Some Central Asian<br />
countries currently play a more important role in addressing Afghanistan-related<br />
problems. Tajikistan is a key actor, for objective reasons, as it feels the direct<br />
impact of the developments in Afghanistan more than other regional countries.<br />
Uzbekistan can play a pivotal role: thanks to its resources it can have the<br />
strongest influence on processes inside Afghanistan. Kazakhstan is the most<br />
resource-rich Central Asian state with a bigger potential than the others to<br />
contribute to (primarily) economic developments. The other two countries will<br />
play more limited roles, Turkmenistan due to its isolationism and unwillingness<br />
and inability to get involved, Kyrgyzstan because of its internal stability problem<br />
and reduced importance once the transit through Manas becomes less important.<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
Central Asian governments are not openly discussing the possible geopolitical<br />
transformation in the region following the NATO drawdown in Afghanistan, but<br />
experts believe that this transformation may become a crucial key factor for<br />
future regional destabilisation.<br />
A number of uncertainties may affect Central Asian countries’ positions and<br />
approaches towards Afghanistan, including short- and medium-term changes in<br />
the social, economic and political conditions such as possible political shifts due<br />
to attempts at changes like the Orange Revolution or Arab Spring, or power<br />
transitions if there are leadership changes. Another uncertainty is the format,<br />
strategy and tactics of the NATO drawdown from Afghanistan and the possible<br />
agreements between NATO member states (most notably the US) and Central<br />
Asian countries with respect to the drawdown of forces from Afghanistan.<br />
Judging from the current situation in and around Afghanistan, the Central Asian<br />
countries are most likely to bolster their efforts to establish political dialogue<br />
with all forces inside Afghanistan, as well as with neighbouring countries and<br />
leading powers that support a unified Afghan state. They are likely to assist<br />
Afghanistan in addressing social and economic concerns and supporting projects<br />
to develop a growing and sustainable Afghan economy. Uzbekistan and<br />
Turkmenistan, in all probability, will focus on bilateral relations, while<br />
Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are more likely to rely on multilateral<br />
institutions that are already involved in the restoration of Afghanistan. But the<br />
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