foir_3880

FOI-R--3880--SE
None of the three security organisations has Afghanistan and its influence on
Central Asia as a natural focus. All the states in the region are weak and can
rapidly succumb to internal or external conflict. The OSCE and the UN include
all the five states but have a very limited role where hard security is concerned.
On the other hand, they are the organisations that are most likely to be acceptable
frameworks for the states in the region. They are consequently not ideal, but
nevertheless likely to be the best multilateral frameworks for security
cooperation after 2014, especially since they give an opportunity for international
actors other than Russia and China to stay involved.
TAJIKISTAN – CENTRAL IN CENTRAL ASIA
Tajikistan comes across as the central country in the Afghanistan–Central Asia
nexus. It is geographically in the middle and has the closest historical, cultural,
ethnic and linguistic links with Afghanistan. Interestingly, it also lands at the
very centre of Rustam Burnashev’s model of how Central Asian states perceive
the challenge from Islamism. Tajikistan is the Central Asian country most
dependent on developments in Afghanistan for its own security. But it is also the
weakest and most vulnerable Central Asian state. Apart from the drugs trade and
the potential disruptive force of militant Islamist groups in northern Afghanistan
near Tajikistan’s border, the country is Farsi-speaking Sunni Muslim and has
close links to Iran. Should a Sunni-Shi’a sectarian divide worsen in Afghanistan
and drag Iran into the equation, this would affect Tajikistan seriously. But,
interestingly, Tajikistan comes across in the work done for this study as the most
optimistic country regarding Afghanistan.
NOT ALL IS GLOOM
Afghanistan also constitutes an economic opportunity for Central Asia. Some of
our authors note that the five states actually see economic opportunities and
believe that economic development is an important component in achieving
greater regional stability (Olimov, Kazemi, Isabaev). The same idea is
pronounced in Afghan policy towards Central Asia. There is potential for
mutually beneficial economic cooperation. Afghanistan needs to rebuild
infrastructure and the Central Asian countries want to expand their trade
networks in and through Afghanistan, onwards to South Asia, the Persian Gulf
and the Indian Ocean. The Central Asian states agree that for economic
cooperation to accelerate Afghanistan needs to remain stable after 2014. So far
economic cooperation has been limited due to the security situation. Uzbekistan
and Tajikistan are the most active with several infrastructure projects;
Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan have no economic cooperation to speak of while
Kazakhstan mainly gives economic aid.
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