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AN EVOLVING SECURITY VACUUM
All the authors note the unpredictability of Afghanistan’s development after
ISAF as a major challenge for the region and its countries. Taken together,
Central Asia’s current numerous security challenges – such as weak states,
poverty, Islamism, the drugs trade, corruption, border and ethnic tensions,
succession power struggles and resource competition – all give the region a big
potential for upheaval. Who can deal with a worsening situation, especially if it
changes rapidly
Afghanistan’s neighbours fear that the ANSF cannot uphold security and that
they will have to deal with any negative spillover. The Central Asian states’
capabilities to influence the Afghan security situation vary. The lack of trust and
coordination between them makes regional cooperation difficult. With the West
eventually out of the picture it is likely that a security vacuum will evolve.
Several authors (Laumulin, Isabaev, Kazemi) noted that regional cooperation on
security issues requires outside pressure. With less Western involvement, Russia
and China are the only countries that could apply such pressure. While China is
reluctant to engage in issues beyond the economic sphere, Russia is inclined to
address regional security, as shown through its commitment to the CSTO.
Without real alternatives, this is currently Central Asia’s best bet. However, any
military forces Moscow needs to commit to back up its policies in Ukraine in
addition to those deployed to Crimea after its annexation by Russia will not be
available for intervention in Central Asia.
The security challenges facing the region, both from Afghanistan (drugs trade,
Islamism, spillover of instability) and from within and between the Central Asian
states (weak and corrupt states, border conflicts, ethnic tensions, resource
competition), outweigh the collective ability to handle them. In early 2014, there
is a fragile status quo in the region. But one can doubt the capability of any of the
five states to handle a situation in which the challenges would be aggravated. As
for the ability to handle challenges collectively, the lack of common
understandings of the problems, the lack of trust and a tradition of preferring
bilateral relations do not bode well. The only actor that is taking active measures
on a wider scale to prepare for the security challenges in Central Asia is Russia.
THE INTRACTABLE DRUGS TRAFFICKING
In terms of consequences for both Central Asia and beyond, the biggest issue is
the drugs trade. Emil Dzhuraev rightly underlines the need to contextualise the
drugs trade. Demand is increasing in Central Asia and in the huge Russian
market and no decrease of production is in sight. The point is not only the
volume of the trade or its dire consequences but that it simply is intractable. It is
too profitable and too transnational for any of the Central Asian states, all more
or less weak states, to combat it effectively. Muzaffar Olimov agrees, calling the
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