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to Russia and a privileged zone of influence and leadership in the region. If all
this fails, Uzbekistan can always nurture its relationship with the ethnic Uzbek
General Abdul Rashid Dostum and his party in Afghanistan to create a buffer
zone against Taliban advances in the north of Afghanistan.
Tajikistan’s political elite believes that Afghanistan is a key determinant for its
country’s future. Tajikistan’s stance on Afghanistan is based on several
principles. Tajikistan advocates rational neighbourly relations and wants to
preserve Afghanistan’s integrity and independence, whilst recognising that
military action is not a solution. Furthermore, Tajikistan emphasises the need for
international consensus on Afghanistan and refrains from emphasising
ideological, ethnic and regional aspects in its Afghanistan policies. Afghanistan
should be a partner on both energy and security issues. As for illegal drug
production, the focus should be on workable solutions both within Afghanistan
and regarding trafficking outside Afghanistan, as well as restoration of the social
fabric in Afghanistan. Finally, Tajikistan also wants to develop a coordinated,
regional, Central Asian policy on Afghanistan focusing on joint development of
Afghanistan’s markets (energy and food) and mutually beneficial use of
infrastructure and transport links between Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Tajikistan, like Kyrgyzstan, sees the possibility of stabilisation in and
reconstruction of Afghanistan as an opportunity to export electricity to
Afghanistan and to energy-poor India and Pakistan. Tajikistan has made
numerous proposals for how to develop future electricity exports should it
successfully develop the Rogun hydropower dam. One is to build transmission
lines from Rogun to Iran through Mazar-e Sharif and another to go through
Kunduz and Kabul and on to Jalalabad in Pakistan. The problem with these
proposals is that Tajikistan struggles with its own electricity supply during
winter. Furthermore, the construction of the Rogun dam is being challenged by
neighbouring Uzbekistan, which weakens the prospects for sustainable
cooperation. Tajikistan also hopes to benefit from trade and transport routes to
Afghanistan. Should plans for improving the railway system inside Afghanistan
materialise, Tajikistan would want to build a Dushanbe–Kurgan Teppe–Kunduz
railway.
Undoubtedly there are good prospects for relations between Tajikistan and
Afghanistan based on equal rights and mutual advantage, provided that the
situation in Afghanistan remains stable. The further development of these
relations, including the realisation of planned joint projects in the fields of hydro
energy and transport, depends to a great extent on the military-political situation
in Afghanistan and in the region as a whole after the withdrawal of ISAF.
Currently it is difficult to account for Turkmenistan’s position on the Afghan
issue, since Turkmenistan is not represented on the regional security agenda.
Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov seems to wants to make it an
international issue, for example by saying that the only way out of the crisis is
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