foir_3880

FOI-R--3880--SE
Overview
The report is divided into three sections and a concluding discussion. Section A
covers the perspectives of the Central Asian countries sharing borders with
Afghanistan i.e. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Apart from their
geographical proximity to Afghanistan they also have links to minorities of their
ethnic kin in Afghanistan. In chapter one ‘How may the withdrawal of ISAF
from Afghanistan affect Turkmenistan’, Nina Startseva notes that Turkmenistan
is a weak state which has tried to isolate itself from problems in Afghanistan.
Nevertheless, Turkmenistan remains very vulnerable to influences from its southeastern
neighbour. Chapter two, Azamjon Isabaev’s ‘Uzbekistan and Afghanistan
– security challenges post-2014’, describes how Uzbekistan, which has tighter
control over its border with Afghanistan than Turkmenistan does, sees
opportunities in Afghanistan, but explains that the challenges are great and the
Central Asian countries’ abilities to handle them are limited. In chapter three,
‘North-east Afghanistan and the Republic of Tajikistan – post-ISAF security
challenges’ Muzaffar Olimov outlines how Tajikistan’s close relations with
Afghanistan balance between trade and transit opportunities and grave security
challenges. Security in Tajikistan requires a secure and stable Afghanistan.
Section B focuses on regional perspectives on the two major security challenges
for Central Asia that emanate from Afghanistan – the illegal drugs trade and
Islamism – as well as the viability of regional cooperation to handle these
challenges. Chapter four, Emil Dzhuraev’s ‘Drug trafficking in Central Asia after
2014: towards a broader and more realistic view’ puts the narcotics issue in a
wider context, noting that not only supply and transit should be targeted, but also
demand. This seemingly intractable transnational problem is too big for Central
Asia and must be handled in a wider international framework. In the fifth
chapter, ‘Why Islamists are not the most important regional security challenge
for Central Asian states’, Rustam Burnashev notes that Islamism is framed as a
security challenge by Central Asian regimes. It has primarily domestic roots, but
is often wrongly connected with Afghanistan. The regimes agree on neither the
nature of the threat nor how it should be countered. The preconditions for
regional cooperation are poor, and Murat Laumulin notes in the sixth chapter,
‘Regional efforts of the Central Asian states regarding Afghanistan’, that the
Central Asian states focus either on bilateral relations or on wider cooperation
involving major powers or international organisations. Without these, security
cooperation between the Central Asian states is unlikely to develop.
Section C is devoted to perspectives on Central Asia from outside actors that
remain involved in the region either in security (primarily Russia) or
economically (both China and Russia as well as Afghanistan). In chapter seven,
‘Afghanistan and the Central Asian states: reflections on the evolving relations
after 2014’ Said Reza Kazemi challenges the whole approach of this report – that
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