foir_3880

FOI-R--3880--SE
6 Regional efforts of the Central Asian
states regarding Afghanistan
Dr Murat Laumulin
The drawdown of NATO forces may destabilise Afghanistan and neighbouring
Central Asia. The closer neighbours – Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan
– are more concerned than more distant Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. All the
Central Asian states see economic potential in Afghanistan, but also security
threats such as terrorism, religious fundamentalism and drugs trafficking. As for
peace in Afghanistan, they agree that there is no military solution. Economic
restoration should play a bigger role; a political process must be Afghan-led and
involve all actors (which means the Taliban as well) and respect Afghanistan’s
traditions and culture; and, finally, the UN and the international community
should be more involved. Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are likely to
rely on multilateral institutions, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan prefer
bilateral relations. But the middle road between them – regional efforts between
the five Central Asian states – will be less travelled.
A SECURITY PROBLEM SET TO REMAIN
Afghanistan is still facing serious security, political and economic challenges.
The threat of terrorism is the primary cause of instability. All the Central Asian
states understand that ongoing counter-terrorism campaigns, particularly military
deterrence, have no future in Afghanistan. Despite the international effort aimed
at creating the conditions for Afghanistan’s sustainable development, the
situation in the country is not improving. Afghanistan is still not succeeding in
tackling instability, setting up a viable government or fostering economic
development. In these circumstances, the drawdown of coalition forces, primarily
from the United States and other NATO countries, might act as a catalyst to
destabilise the situation both in Afghanistan and in the neighbouring states,
including Central Asia. Afghanistan and Central Asia will in that case face
challenges that are persistent, certain and, at this stage, insurmountable.
Terrorism, feeding on extremism and militancy, threatens national governments
and exploits ethnic, sectarian and secessionist conflict. It also destabilises regions
with the threat of interstate wars, which may even draw in global powers.
Furthermore, terror groups are capitalising on the Afghan drugs trade and
robbing all actors of the chance of realising economic opportunities, which in
turn leads to the displacement of large populations. Against this background, this
chapter aims to discuss the prospects for multilateral security cooperation in
Central Asia in the light of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of ISAF.
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