foir_3880

FOI-R--3880--SE
Introduction
The relation between Afghanistan and Central Asia is important for several
reasons. First, Central Asia will be affected by developments in Afghanistan such
as Islamism, drugs smuggling and sectarian and inter-ethnic conflict. Few are
optimistic about the immediate future after the NATO-led International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) leave Afghanistan. Second, the five Central Asian states
are weak states destabilised by several domestic economic and political
challenges. Relations between them are characterised by mistrust and even
enmity. Their ability to handle complex regional security challenges is often
questioned. There may well be both inter- and intra-state armed conflict, even
without any spillover from Afghanistan. Third, Russia’s political leadership sees
Central Asia as a part of Russia’s sphere of influence and a factor in Eurasian
integration. For Sweden, a neighbour of Russia in the west, it is important to
understand Russia’s concerns and ambitions in other parts of the world.
There are many articles published in the West assessing and commenting on
Central Asian security and Afghanistan. Western interest in Central Asia in the
field of security has been related to the Western presence in Afghanistan. This is
likely to decrease in the future. It is important to listen to the views of those who
remain involved in Central Asia in order to understand the future security
challenges related to Afghanistan. The countries that will have to deal with the
region’s future security challenges are foremost Afghanistan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as well as the external
actors Russia and China. The aim of this report is to give voice to views from
Afghanistan, Central Asia, China and Russia about future security situation in the
region after the withdrawal of ISAF and to discuss its implications.
The preparatory phase of this study concluded that there were many important
factors that had to be addressed for an analysis of security issues in Central Asia.
Challenges include terrorism, Islamism, drugs smuggling, ethnic ties, weak
states, porous borders, corruption, poor economic development, political
repression and unrest, and the spillover of instability from Afghanistan into
Central Asia. The region is often described as violent in the political sphere as
well (Graubner, 2012) and has seen violent political unrest many times (see map
on page 12). To further explore these issues three study trips were conducted in
2012, resulting in more than 50 interviews with politicians, researchers,
journalists and government officials in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and
Russia (Hedenskog and Holmquist, 2012a; 2012b). The interviews made it easier
to understand Central Asian views on how developments in Afghanistan might
influence the region. They also helped to single out the two main challenges for
Central Asia emanating from Afghanistan that became the key issues in this
report: first, the illegal trade in narcotics, here referred to as the drugs trade; and,
second, Islamism as both a political and a security factor. Unfortunately, it was
not possible to visit Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
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