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as Turkmenistan’s very complicated visa procedure. Residents in the border
region complain that Turkmenistan’s border guards repeatedly arrest ordinary
people involved in cross-border trade and in farming on the Turkmenistan–
Afghanistan border (Oguz, 2011).
HOW POST-ISAF AFGHANISTAN MAY AFFECT TURKMENISTAN
It is difficult to predict how Afghanistan will evolve after the reduction of NATO
forces in 2014 and how it will affect its neighbours. Turkmenistan, like the other
neighbours, is concerned about security and there are indications that the issue is
having an impact on security policy. The main potential problems for
Turkmenistan could be drugs trafficking, the effects of the fight against
international terrorism, illegal border crossings, possible armed attacks by the
Taliban on the border of Turkmenistan, refugee flows and increasing illegal
migration. In other words, should the situation in Afghanistan deteriorate,
today’s problems will be exacerbated and there may be the additional problems
of refugees and illegal migration.
Concerns about Afghanistan seem to be having an impact on Turkmenistan’s
neutrality policy. The government of Turkmenistan is consolidating efforts with
its regional neighbours, perhaps because it feels that its own efforts may be
insufficient in the event of a real threat from Afghanistan. One sign of this is that
on 2 October 2012 in Ashgabat, the presidents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
met to discuss border security in relation to the withdrawal of ISAF from
Afghanistan. The leaders seemed to be interested in coordinating proactive
measures to ensure the security of their citizens. During the talks the presidents
agreed to defend their borders together (Sodikov, 2012).
Another threat to Turkmenistan’s future security could be increased drugs trade,
both through and within in the country. Today ISAF can monitor the border on
the Afghanistan side and can, in theory, intervene in the massive traffic in
narcotics across the border to Turkmenistan. What will happen when ISAF
leaves
Experts agree that in the near future Turkmenistan could become a major transit
corridor for drugs from Afghanistan through Russia to Europe. Turkmen border
guards do not seem particularly good at stopping drugs trafficking on the border.
For several years the official press has not reported any large seizures; border
guard officials admit privately that amounts seized are often very small, just a
few grams (Tadjiev, 2012).
Moreover, all Turkmenistan’s border posts, even the best-equipped ones that
have received help from the international community, are open due to corruption.
Entry into Turkmenistan can always be negotiated, as can the acquisition of a
false passport, and border guards can be bribed not to examine documents. If
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