foir_3880

FOI-R--3880--SE
This study illustrates some of the factors at play as of mid-2013 and is in a sense
a snapshot from that time. The interaction dynamics between Afghanistan and
Central Asia are evolving continuously, and so is the outside world. One clear
example is Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in March 2014. It is likely to
influence both Russia – how Russia relates to Central Asia and the world – and
how former Soviet republics in Central Asia view Russia. As of June 2014, the
full effects of the Crimea crisis remain to be seen.
In this report each author writes in his or her own name and capacity as an expert
and with due regard to their respective realities. They have consequently chosen
different approaches. The report includes both traditional research texts and
opinion pieces. As editors, we welcomed different types of contributions. The
important point is that these are opinions stemming from those who will remain
in the realities of Central Asia when Western countries leave Afghanistan. It is,
after all, their countries that will have to live with the region’s evolving security
challenges. Inevitably, some of the contributions overlap to some extent.
Researchers from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) developed the
overall approach for the study and co-organised the workshop in Almaty in May
2013 together with Al-Farabi University. FOI has also been responsible for
translating and editing the Russian texts into English as well as editing the final
report. As for the actual content of the report, FOI researchers are responsible for
the framework. This included the report’s introduction, the introduction to each
of the sections, and the summaries appearing at the top of each chapter as well as
the final discussion and the overall conclusions.
Terminology and limitations
What is Central Asia History and today’s geopolitics provide a range of
different geographical interpretations. There are many cross-border relations and
influencing factors around Afghanistan. For this report, however, we and our
authors agree that the term Central Asia means the five former Soviet republics
that gained independence in 1991: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Afghanistan is obviously a key factor in this report and has close geographical,
historical, ethnic and cultural proximity to Central Asia. The focus is, however,
on security issues related to Afghanistan. Other aspects such as ethnic and
cultural ties and history are touched upon when they relate to the discussion
about security. For the purposes of this report, however, our definition of Central
Asia makes Afghanistan an outside actor.
As for international forces in Afghanistan, the authors refer to the foreign troops
in different ways. Terms like ‘NATO’, ‘the West’, ‘American’ or ‘the coalition
forces’ all refer to the NATO-led ISAF, which has operated with a UN mandate
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