foir_3880

FOI-R--3880--SE
capabilities of the Afghan forces remain highly controversial: according to the
Pentagon, only one of 23 Afghan Army brigades was able to carry out a military
operation independently without any backup from ISAF in 2012 (Bumiller,
2012). Increasing numbers of ‘green-on-blue’ attacks are raising additional
apprehensions about the reliability of local forces, which are to take the leading
security role in the country after 2014.
When highlighting the importance of regional cooperation in a post-war
Afghanistan, one should avoid overemphasis on the potentials of Central Asian
republics. Support from key outside powers will still be needed if the situation in
Afghanistan worsens substantially.
In this regard, a balanced approach is required. Accordingly, Uzbekistan is
pursuing a collective solution for Afghanistan involving both regional and key
non-regional powers.
PROJECTING POST-2014 AFGHANISTAN
Based on the present tendencies inside the country it is not too difficult to predict
a deterioration of the domestic security environment in post-2014 Afghanistan.
Since 2011 the frequent green-on-blue attacks, when coalition forces are attacked
and killed by their Afghan counterparts, have become a major threat for
international coalition forces. In 2012 these accounted for 15 per cent of coalition
deaths, which is 2.5 times as much as in the previous year (Roggio and
Lundquist, 2013). According to the same source, between 2008 and April 2013,
the number of those attacks totalled 76, with 44 of them carried out last year.
One quarter of insider attacks were reportedly due to Taliban infiltration
(Shanker, 2012). In the light of the ongoing drawdown and the transfer of main
security responsibilities to the local army and police, the growing number of
subversive actions in the ranks of Afghan soldiers puts the prospects of their
providing domestic security after 2014 without close international assistance into
serious doubt.
Moreover, the Afghan Army, which was supposed to take the over the lead in all
combat operations in the country by mid-2013 (The White House, 2012), still
lacks competence and strength sufficient for it to fight effectively against Taliban
and other anti-government movements. For example, the Afghan Army’s low
credibility was evident in April 2013 when Afghan forces were only able to
overcome hard resistance from a Taliban stronghold after nearby US forces
supported them with an air strike (Ahmed, 2013).
Another major threat emanating from Afghanistan is opium cultivation. In 2012
the total area under opium cultivation increased to 154,000 hectares (ha)
compared to 131,000 ha in the previous year (UNODC, 2012). Over a year
opium production fell to 3,700 tons from 5,800 tons (due to plant disease and bad
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