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FOI-R--<strong>3880</strong>--SE http://www.trend.az/regions/casia/tajikistan/2141060.html (accessed 27 January 2014). UN Radio (2012) ‘Tadzhikistan vnosit vklad v podgotovku natsionalnykh kadrov Afganistana’, 27 November 2012, http://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/russian/archives/126523/ (accessed 27 January 2014). UNODC (2012) ‘Opiate flows through Northern Afghanistan and Central Asia: a threat assessment’, UNODC, May 2012, http://www.unodc.org/documents/dataand-analysis/Studies/Afghanistan_northern_route_2012_web.pdf (accessed 27 January 2014). Zarifi, Hamrokhon (2008) ‘Zarifi prizval Evrosoiuz shiroko ispolzovat infrastrukturu Tadzhikistana dlia razvitiia Afganistana’, Khovar News Agency, 16 December 2008, http://khovar.tj/rus/archive/4414-h.-zarifi-prizval-evrosoyuzshiroko-ispolzovat-infrastrukturu-tadzhikistana-dlya-razvitiya-afganistana.html (accessed 27 January 2014). 46
FOI-R--<strong>3880</strong>--SE B. Regional cooperation Two issues prevail in the Central Asian discourse on security threats coming from Afghanistan. The first was drugs trafficking, and the other militant religious extremism. The political leaderships in the five republics think very differently about how important these security threats are and about their potential impact on the region. Since the peoples in Central Asia are nominally predominantly Muslim, the perceived threat of religious extremism generally signifies Islamist militant extremism. This threat entails both the impact of radical ideology on political systems and the violence caused by religiously motivated terrorism. The terms ‘Islamist’ or ‘religious’ extremism appear to be labels used for a range of security threats with varying connections to Afghanistan. In contrast to Islamism, the link between Afghanistan and drugs trafficking is self-explanatory. Afghanistan is the world’s leading heroin producer. The size of this threat is quantifiable in terms of assessments by the UNODC of the amounts of narcotics trafficked through Central Asia to Russia and Europe. Exact information about the drugs trade’s impact on the economic and social spheres of Central Asia is scarce and conditions vary between the countries. Although widespread corruption exists in the region in symbiosis with the drugs trade, the five republics are affected in different ways. The UNODC believes that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are the most vulnerable countries because drugs smuggling networks permeate the state power structures. Corruption aside, several other structural problems facilitate the drugs trade in Central Asia. There are few regional mechanisms for dealing jointly with transnational problems – not only drugs trafficking but also religious militant extremism. Two reasons for this are the different states’ varying threat perceptions and a high degree of mistrust between them. Thus, cooperation between Central Asian countries seems generally to be bilateral or heavily influenced by concerned outsiders, for example, within the CSTO or the SCO. This section of the report further investigates the effects on Central Asia of the two main threats, militant religious extremism and drugs smuggling. It also includes perspectives on the viability of regional cooperation between the Central Asian states in order to handle security threats emanating from Afghanistan. 47
Page 1: ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanista
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Page 6 and 7: FOI-R--3880--SE Sammanfattning Denn
Page 8 and 9: FOI-R--3880--SE Summary The aim of
Page 10 and 11: FOI-R--3880--SE Contents Preface 10
Page 12 and 13: FOI-R--3880--SE Preface There seems
Page 14 and 15: FOI-R--3880--SE Map of Central Asia
Page 16 and 17: FOI-R--3880--SE Overview The report
Page 18 and 19: FOI-R--3880--SE This study illustra
Page 20 and 21: FOI-R--3880--SE Acronyms and abbrev
Page 22 and 23: FOI-R--3880--SE 1 How may the withd
Page 24 and 25: FOI-R--3880--SE Afghan cities of He
Page 26 and 27: FOI-R--3880--SE as Turkmenistan’s
Page 28 and 29: FOI-R--3880--SE the border. The Far
Page 30 and 31: FOI-R--3880--SE Oguz, Esedulla (201
Page 32 and 33: FOI-R--3880--SE capabilities of the
Page 34 and 35: FOI-R--3880--SE Among the Central A
Page 36 and 37: FOI-R--3880--SE One of the most ser
Page 38 and 39: FOI-R--3880--SE 3 North-east Afghan
Page 40 and 41: FOI-R--3880--SE The Tajik political
Page 42 and 43: FOI-R--3880--SE The strengthening o
Page 44 and 45: FOI-R--3880--SE structures. Talk of
Page 46 and 47: FOI-R--3880--SE Chorshanbiev, Paira
Page 50 and 51: FOI-R--3880--SE 4 Drugs trafficking
Page 52 and 53: FOI-R--3880--SE While the objective
Page 54 and 55: FOI-R--3880--SE distrust, lack of i
Page 56 and 57: FOI-R--3880--SE interstate distrust
Page 58 and 59: FOI-R--3880--SE 5 Why Islamists are
Page 60 and 61: FOI-R--3880--SE however, has a phan
Page 62 and 63: FOI-R--3880--SE actually not closel
Page 64 and 65: FOI-R--3880--SE people’s ability
Page 66 and 67: FOI-R--3880--SE Hansen, L. (2000)
Page 68 and 69: FOI-R--3880--SE 6 Regional efforts
Page 70 and 71: FOI-R--3880--SE nature of the Afgha
Page 72 and 73: FOI-R--3880--SE through negotiation
Page 74 and 75: FOI-R--3880--SE The Central Asian c
Page 76 and 77: FOI-R--3880--SE C. Remaining extern
Page 78 and 79: FOI-R--3880--SE A tentative argumen
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Page 84 and 85: FOI-R--3880--SE Kazemi, Said Reza (
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Page 96 and 97: FOI-R--3880--SE Samad, Omar (2013)
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FOI-R--3880--SE republics of Centra
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FOI-R--3880--SE dominate new integr
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FOI-R--3880--SE there are concentra
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FOI-R--3880--SE School of Economics
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FOI-R--3880--SE Ivanov, Viktor (201
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FOI-R--3880--SE D. Discussion As of
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FOI-R--3880--SE drugs trade in Taji
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FOI-R--3880--SE Russian policymaker
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FOI-R--3880--SE … WITHOUT THE OUT
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FOI-R--3880--SE But the competition
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FOI-R--3880--SE References (for the
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FOI-R--3880--SE Biographies Rustam
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FOI-R--3880--SE 2012); ‘Islam in
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