Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

foreign policy • revolution in the arab world
In other words, there are no guarantees that “Mubarakism without
Mubarak” won’t make a comeback. All we have is the word of an unelected
junta led by generals installed by Mubarak himself. The Egyptian military
has spoken out against labor strikes, which have spread across the country
as thousands of state workers—including, incredibly, police officers seeking
higher wages—have seized the moment to press their own demands. If the
strikes escalate, watch out: Egypt could be headed for a period of extended
instability rather than democratic consolidation. The type of turmoil seen
in Tunis, where wave after wave of protests has led to a revolving door of
high-level resignations and recriminations, might well follow in Cairo.
Not that outsiders can do much to intervene. As unrest spreads from Morocco
to Bahrain, fanned by satellite television and social networking sites
such as Facebook and Twitter, the unsustainable old order is crumbling. In
the face of tear-gas grenades, police batons, and mass arrests, Arabs everywhere
are conquering their fears and demanding free and fair elections, better
schools and health care, clean government, and economic opportunity.
Clearly what happened in Tunisia and in Egypt, the beating heart of the
Arab world, won’t stay there.
Yet the revolutionaries in Cairo had a few unique advantages. Alongside
its massive state media apparatus, among the world’s largest, Egypt boasted
independent newspapers and a robust, if embattled civil society that had
learned much in its years of working against the regime. Egyptian reporters
and pundits were often hassled, but they could write what they wanted as
long as they didn’t cross certain red lines, such as discussing the president’s
health or delving too deeply into corrupt business deals. The Internet was
monitored, but not censored outright. Hundreds of foreign reporters had
experience and contacts in Egypt and could get the word out. And given the
close ties between the Pentagon and the Egyptian military, the United States
had leverage that may have helped prevent a far nastier crackdown. Other
protest movements won’t be so lucky.
Going forward, opposition leaders in other Arab countries will have to
find their own paths to victory; simply setting a date and calling for people
to go to the streets won’t work. And they now face terrified rulers who see
clearly that they need to adapt—though none will give up an iota of any
real power. Some, like the wealthy monarchs in Bahrain and Kuwait, will
6