Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

More documents

Recommendations

Info

foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • barack obama is that we may not get the cathartic moment of Mubarak’s plane departing to the cheers of millions of Egyptians celebrating a new era. The struggle is now shifting to the much messier terrain of negotiations over the terms of Egypt’s transition, with public and private jockeying over matters ranging from the esoteric (proposed language for constitutional reforms) to the symbolic (Mubarak’s role). Overall, we should not overreact to the frustration over Mubarak’s hanging on to power and the seeming retrenchment of regime power. Let’s not forget how much has already happened—Hosni and Gamal Mubarak agreeing not to run in the next election, in particular, meaning that the Kifaya movement has finally achieved its primary demand dating back nearly a decade. The administration, for its part, has continued to push hard publicly and privately for rapid, meaningful reforms. The narrative that it has abandoned them is untrue, but could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if it empowers Suleiman’s “normality” gambit and stiffens the regime’s resistance to real change. There are many tough days ahead and no guarantees that the administration’s strategy will work. But it is still trying. February 10 It’s hard to exaggerate how bad Hosni Mubarak’s speech today was for Egypt. In the extended run-up to his remarks, every sign indicated that he planned to announce his resignation: the military’s announcement that it had taken control, the shift in state television coverage, a steady stream of leaks about the speech. With the whole world watching, Mubarak instead offered a meandering, confused speech promising vague constitutional changes and defiance of foreign pressure. He offered a vaguely worded delegation of power to Vice President Omar Suleiman, long after everyone in Egypt had stopped listening. It is virtually impossible to conceive of a more poorly conceived or executed speech. It seems pretty clear that most people, from the Obama administration to Egyptian government and opposition leaders, expected Mubarak to announce his departure tonight—and that they had good reasons to believe that. That turned out to be wrong. I don’t think anybody knows what’s going on inside Mubarak’s head right now, though he certainly seems out of 184
foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • barack obama touch with what is really going on. I suspect that his decision may have changed from earlier in the day and that people inside the Egyptian military and regime are themselves scrambling to figure out their next move. If the military has any plans to step in this would be a good time—especially after the military’s communiqué #1 seemed to suggest that it was breaking in the other direction. Obama doesn’t have a lot of great options right now. His policy of steadily mounting private and public pressure to force Mubarak to leave and for his successor to begin a meaningful transition to real democratic change seems to have almost worked. But for now it seems to have foundered on Mubarak’s obstinateness. The administration, which is conferring even as I wrote this, can’t be silent in the face of Mubarak and Suleiman’s disastrous decision. It needs to continue to pound on its message that it demands that a real transition begin immediately, and to do whatever it can to make that happen now … even if its leverage remains limited. It should express its sharp disappointment with what it heard today and continue to push the military to avoid using violence in the tense hours to come. Mubarak’s speech today, with its frequent references to foreign pressure, poses a direct challenge to Obama (and also suggests how much pressure he was in fact receiving). Those who are suggesting that Obama wanted Mubarak to stay are nuts. Now it’s time to double down on the push for an orderly transition to real democracy before it’s too late—and that is now. February 11 It’s frankly hard to believe today’s news that Hosni Mubarak has finally stepped down as president of Egypt without a wave of bloodshed. After yesterday’s disappointment and today’s anxiety, nothing could have been more welcome. There will be plenty of time for postmortems, and there will be an enormous amount of hard work to come to ensure that this actually becomes a transition to democracy and not simply to a reconstituted authoritarian regime. But for today, it’s OK to simply celebrate—to stand in awe of the Egyptian people and their ability to topple a seemingly impenetrable dictator through massive, peaceful protests. Nothing will ever be the same. This was an unprecedented victory for the Egyptian people and at last a 185
Page 1 and 2:
Revolution in the Arab World Tunisi
Page 3 and 4:
foreign foreign policy policy • r
Page 5 and 6:
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
foreign policy • revolution in th
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144: foreign policy • revolution in th
Page 193: foreign policy • revolution in th
Page 227: foreign policy • revolution in th
show all

Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?