Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

More documents

Recommendations

Info

foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • barack obama do so. And comments made by various administration officials suggest that they don’t really expect him to be able to deliver. This blunt conditionality has to be understood in tandem with White House spokesman Robert Gibbs’s carefully chosen words that U.S. economic and military aid to Egypt would now be reviewed—a direct, almost unprecedented form of pressure on Egypt for which many democracy activists have clamored for years to no avail. February 3 The Obama administration has been trying increasingly forcefully to persuade Hosni Mubarak to allow an “orderly transition” that is “meaningful.” The administration has sent this message privately through multiple channels and has gradually escalated its public statements up to the president’s statement on Tuesday that the transition must be meaningful and must begin now. Yesterday’s frenzy of regime-orchestrated mob violence shows clearly that Mubarak is not interested in following this advice and like so many dictators before him intends to cling to power by any means necessary. By unleashing violence and refusing the demand for an immediate, meaningful transition, Mubarak has now violated two clear red lines laid down by the president. There must be consequences. It’s time to meet escalation with escalation and lay out, in private and public, that the Egyptian military now faces a clear and painful choice: push Mubarak out now and begin a meaningful transition, or else face international isolation and a major rupture with the United States. Mubarak’s actions should not have come as a surprise. His strategy was obvious from the start: to try to buy time until the protest fever broke by offering a variety of token concessions, seeking to divide the opposition by co-opting political party leaders, playing on Western fears of Islamists, stoking nationalist resentments against foreign interference, carefully protecting his relations with the military leadership, and cashing in on decades of good relations with international leaders. His strategy thus far has been only partly successful—the regime has clearly been surprised by the energy and tenacity of the protesters, as well as by how little international support he has found. Indeed, while many people have argued that Mubarak’s unleash- 182
foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • barack obama ing of the thugs against the protesters in Tahrir Square came with Obama’s blessing, I’d say it was quite the opposite—an act of desperation when Obama privately and publicly rejected his “concessions” as inadequate. What now I would say that the time has come for the Obama administration to escalate to the next step of actively trying to push Mubarak out. They were right to not do so earlier. No matter how frustrated activists have been by his perceived hedging, until yesterday it was not the time to move to the bottom line. Mubarak is an American ally of 30 years and needed to be given the chance to respond appropriately. And everyone seems to forget that magical democracy words (a phrase which as far as I know I coined) don’t work. Obama saying “Mubarak must go” would not have made Mubarak go, absent the careful preparation of the ground so that the potential power brokers saw that they really had no choice. Yesterday’s orgy of state-sanctioned violence should be the moment to make clear that there is now no alternative. February 8 There seems to be a congealing narrative that the Obama administration has thrown in its lot with Omar Suleiman, abandoned its push for democratic change, and succumbed to shortsighted pragmatism. It’s easy to see the attraction of this perspective. Hopes and expectations that Friday would be the climactic day of Mubarak’s departure shattered on his obstinate refusal, leaving many people deflated and frustrated. Comments by the State Department’s mail-carrier Frank Wisner that Mubarak should stay and more cautious language from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Munich are dots easily connected, especially by a Washington media corps primed for signs of Obama’s weakness or intra-administration splits. Suleiman and Mubarak’s men are also pushing this narrative of a softening American position in order to deflect perceptions that they are under foreign pressure and to discourage Egyptian protesters. Tahrir Square protesters have been primed from the start to express their dismay with Obama, since he could never have satisfied their hopes. But this narrative, so politically convenient for so many different actors, captures only one part of the truth. But at this point, the hard reality 183
Page 1 and 2:
Revolution in the Arab World Tunisi
Page 3 and 4:
foreign foreign policy policy • r
Page 5 and 6:
Page 7 and 8:
Page 9 and 10:
Page 11 and 12:
foreign policy • revolution in th
Page 13 and 14:
Page 15 and 16:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142: foreign policy • revolution in th
Page 191: foreign policy • revolution in th
Page 227: foreign policy • revolution in th
show all

Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?