Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • winners, losers
Winners, Losers,
and the Still Unknowns
By Stephen M. Walt
When Zhou Enlai was asked in the 1970s about the historical significance
of the French Revolution, he famously responded that it was “too soon to tell.”
Given that wise caution, it is undoubtedly foolhardy for me to try to pick the
winners and losers of an upheaval whose ultimate implications remain uncertain.
But at the risk of looking silly in a few days (or weeks or months or years),
I’m going to ignore the obvious pitfalls and forge ahead. Here’s my current list
of winners and losers, plus a third category: those for whom I have no idea.
THE WINNERS
1. The Demonstrators: The obvious winners are the thousands of ordinary
Egyptians who poured into the streets to demand Hosni Mubarak’s
ouster and insist on the credible prospect of genuine reform. For this reason,
Mubarak’s designated deputy, Omar Suleiman, had to go too. Some of
the demonstrators’ activities were planned and coordinated (and we’ll probably
know a lot more about it over time), but a lot of it was the spontaneous
expression of long-simmering frustration. By relying on nonviolent methods,
maintaining morale and discipline, and insisting that Mubarak had to
go, the anti-government uprising succeeded where prior protest campaigns
had failed. “People power” with an Arab face. And, oh yes: Google got a
great product placement too.
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