Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

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foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • winners, losers 2. Al Jazeera: With round-the-clock coverage that put a lot of Western media to shame, Al Jazeera comes out with its reputation enhanced. Its ability to transmit these images throughout the Arab world may have given events in Tunisia and Egypt far greater regional resonance. If Radio Cairo was the great revolutionary amplifier of the Nasser era, Al Jazeera may have emerged as an even more potent revolutionary force, as a medium that is shared by Arab publics and accessible to outsiders too. And I’ll bet that is what Mubarak now thinks. 3. Democratic reformers elsewhere in the Middle East: Authoritarian governments in several other countries moved quickly after the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia to take concrete steps to try to defuse potential upheavals and accommodate some reformist demands. It’s early days, of course, but democratic reformers throughout the region have the wind at their backs. Which goes to show that those who supported nonmilitary efforts to encourage more participatory forms of government were right (and those who sought to spread democracy at the end of a rifle barrel were not). 4. The Egyptian military: Paradoxically, the Egyptian armed forces emerged from the crisis with their political power enhanced even further. The United States is now betting that the Army will oversee a peaceful transition, and the early statements from military authorities are reassuring. The big question: Will the military commit itself to genuine reform, or will it try to safeguard its own prerogatives and privileges in a post-Mubarak Egypt 5. China: Why is Beijing a winner here Simple. Whatever subsequently happens in Egypt, the U.S. government is going to spend a lot of time and attention to trying to manage its local and regional impact. That’s good news for China because it means Washington will have less time to spend on both its relations with Beijing and its other strategic partnerships in Asia. I suspect Chinese officials would dearly love for the United States to remain preoccupied by events in the Middle East, and the upheaval in Egypt makes that much more likely. But this advantage is not without an obvious downside: Given its own concerns for domestic legitimacy and internal stability, the Chinese Communist Party leadership cannot be too happy to see an 202
foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • winners, losers authoritarian leader swept from power by a popular uprising, even if the country in question is far away and very different. THE LOSERS 1. The Mubarak Family: Well, duh. Not only is Hosni Mubarak likely to be denied the sort of legacy that he undoubtedly thought he deserved, but his son Gamal is badly in need of a good career counselor. And there’s the growing possibility that Egypt’s new leaders might start trying to track down the Mubarak’s family’s wealth, which is estimated to be on the order of $2 billion to $3 billion. I won’t be weeping for any of them, but there can be no doubt that they are the biggest losers. 2. Al Qaeda: One of al Qaeda’s standard talking points is its insistence that terrorist violence is the only way to bring about change in the Arab world. It also likes to rail against U.S. support for authoritarian regimes in the Islamic world. By driving Mubarak from office through largely peaceful demonstrations, the Egyptian people have demolished the first claim. And despite some occasional wobbles, Barack Obama’s administration ultimately came down on the side of the demonstrators. By helping nudge Mubarak from power and declaring its general support for the reform movement, the Obama administration has undercut al Qaeda’s second line of argument too. And in the best case—a genuine democratic reform movement that leads to significant improvements in Egyptian society—al Qaeda’s appeal will be reduced even further. All in all, this was not a good month for Osama bin Laden, wherever he is. 3. The “Pax Americana” in the Middle East: The Obama administration’s measured response to these events cannot disguise the fact that one of the key pillars of the past four decades of Washington’s Middle East policy has crumbled. Despite some encouraging early signs, it is not yet clear how a post-Mubarak government will deal with Israel, the Gaza siege, extraordinary rendition, etc. A more representative Egyptian government is virtually certain to be less subservient than the old regime, which means that U.S. 203
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