Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog
Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog
Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog
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foreign policy • revolution <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> arab world • barack obama<br />
counterterrorism efforts, important as <strong>the</strong>y are, will move to second place.<br />
Whatever problem Wash<strong>in</strong>gton policymakers consider, and whatever measures<br />
<strong>the</strong>y devise for address<strong>in</strong>g it, <strong>the</strong>y will now ask <strong>the</strong>mselves: What effect<br />
will this have on <strong>the</strong> likelihood that very bad guys will take over <strong>in</strong><br />
Cairo (And, <strong>of</strong> course, Amman, Riyadh, and Sanaa.) Some major policy<br />
<strong>in</strong>itiatives will be pushed through because <strong>the</strong>y are expected to help prop up<br />
<strong>the</strong> good guys. O<strong>the</strong>rs will be ruled out because <strong>of</strong> fears that <strong>the</strong>y will make<br />
it harder to achieve some sort <strong>of</strong> semi-democratic stability.<br />
F<strong>in</strong>ally, political earthquakes like <strong>the</strong> Cairo events always produce<br />
calls for major reth<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g: grand strategy, high concept, neo-Kennanism.<br />
Obama will not be <strong>the</strong> first president to tell his staff he wants a memorable<br />
formula—a pr<strong>of</strong>ound bumper sticker—to describe his new approach. This<br />
is understandable—and, even more, correct. But <strong>the</strong> results are usually slow<br />
<strong>in</strong> com<strong>in</strong>g and <strong>of</strong>ten unsatisfactory when <strong>the</strong>y arrive. Meanwhile, <strong>the</strong> need<br />
for a long-term view will never trump <strong>the</strong> demand for daily pulse-tak<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Dean Acheson used to disparage his critics by compar<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m to <strong>the</strong> farmer<br />
who pulled up his seedl<strong>in</strong>gs every even<strong>in</strong>g to see how successfully <strong>the</strong>y<br />
were tak<strong>in</strong>g root. It was a good l<strong>in</strong>e, but it did not really describe <strong>the</strong> success<br />
<strong>of</strong> American policy <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> early Cold War. Acheson did not simply plant<br />
<strong>the</strong> right seeds and wait patiently for <strong>the</strong> harvest. Nor did Henry Kiss<strong>in</strong>ger<br />
or George Shultz. Effective policy always has <strong>in</strong> it more experimentation,<br />
improvisation, even process <strong>of</strong> elim<strong>in</strong>ation, than its authors like to admit.<br />
If a year from now, <strong>the</strong> Obama adm<strong>in</strong>istration has not run through at least<br />
three or four new ways <strong>of</strong> th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g about its problems <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Middle East,<br />
I’ll be very surprised.<br />
Stephen Sestanovich is George F. Kennan senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian<br />
studies at <strong>the</strong> Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. ambassador<br />
at large and special advisor to <strong>the</strong> secretary <strong>of</strong> state for policy toward <strong>the</strong> states<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> former Soviet Union.<br />
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