Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • winners, losers
Revolutionary Triumph Maybe.
By Nathan J. Brown
Will the Egyptian “revolution,” as it is now universally called, live up to
its name That is not yet clear. I do see real reasons for hope—perhaps more
than any time in the time that I have studied the Arab world. But I do not
see the revolution as having triumphed.
Since the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, I have been traveling
in Amman, Ramallah, and Nablus. My initial but overwhelming impression
is that Egyptian events have inspired a wave of elation and hope that is both
deep and wide and that dissipates only the closer one gets to positions of
political authority. The Egyptian revolution has captivated audiences and
inspired a sense of endless new possibilities. Whether it is a “new dawn”
or “a dividing point in history” (as I heard it described by Jordanians and
Palestinians across the political spectrum), Egyptians are seen as having
brought down a rotten system as they begin to write their own future. The
only question is how other Arabs (and maybe even Iranians) can join them.
I am not yet so sure.
It is not that the old regime still remains (though it does; the junta and the
cabinet are both still staffed by pre-revolutionary appointees and only vague
hints of a cabinet reshuffle have been floated). It is clear that real change of
some kind will take place. But the shape of the transition has not yet been
defined. A more democratic, pluralistic, participatory, public-spirited, and
responsive political system is a real possibility. But so is a kinder, gentler,
presidentially-dominated, liberalized authoritarianism.
The danger of indefinite military rule in Egypt is small. While pundits
have often proclaimed the military to be the real political power in Egypt
207