Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • rumblings
“That was just an advertisement!” he explained to me with a wave of the
hand, incredulous at my naiveté. “I said, ‘Death to America! Screwdrivers
for 100 toman!’” Two altogether separate sentences, he argued. The small
crowd we had attracted shared his incredulity and verified that there indeed
had been a pause between the two phrases.
“Come back next week,” he said. “Perhaps I’ll have some for you then.”
(Sharia has not yet replaced the laws of supply and demand in Iran.)
Many close observers of Iran confess to being baffled at the country’s
complex politics, its internal contradictions, its cultural nuances. How is it,
many wonder, that a system that has profoundly underperformed for three
decades could remain in power
The leaders of the opposition Green Movement are no doubt pondering
this question. At the height of the 2009 unrest, they had hoped to recruit
Iran’s disaffected officialdom and traditional classes. Some joined last summer,
but many watched, and continue to watch, from the sidelines. “They
wanted to see the Green Movement succeed,” said my friend, the university
professor. “But they won’t make a move until things are really on the verge
of change. They’re afraid.”
Too often we underestimate the sustainability of morally bankrupt regimes
that have mastered the art of repression coupled with financial cooptation.
In the cynical words of a scion of a powerful clerical family, who
told me once: “When you have control over the oil revenue, you can run this
country with a few million supporters and 20,000 people who are willing to
kill and die for you.” Maybe, though that formula did not work for the shah.
There is some wisdom in the old adage that Iran’s largest political party
is the hezb-e baad, the “party of the wind.” Iranians have historically gravitated
toward where the most powerful political winds are blowing. As antigovernment
demonstrations engulfed Tehran last summer, I thought of the
sloganeering screwdriver salesman from Friday prayers.
“Death to the Dictator!” I pictured him saying, crying to the parched
crowds. “Watermelon juice for 500 toman!”
That likely didn’t happen. Not just yet. But maybe one day soon.
Karim Sadjadpour is an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace.
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