Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • winners, losers
diplomacy toward Egypt and the region will have to be more flexible and
nuanced than it has been for some time. More than ever before, the United
States will want to put Middle East policymaking in the hands of people
who are imaginative, principled, evenhanded, deeply knowledgeable about
Arab societies, and willing to rethink the failed policies of the past. Do I
think we will No.
4. The Muslim Brotherhood: Despite all the attention the Muslim Brotherhood
has recently received, I think it’s more than likely that Mubarak’s
departure will ultimately undercut its position in Egypt. It got 20 percent of
the vote in the 2005 elections, but that total was inflated by the fact that it
was the only real alternative to Mubarak’s party. Once you let other political
parties form and compete for popularity, electoral support for the MB
is likely to decline, unless it can repackage itself in a way that appeals to
younger Egyptians. Ironically, both Mubarak and the MB may be more a
part of Egypt’s past than an influential part of its future.
5. The Palestinians: In the short term, the Egyptian upheaval is bad news
for the Palestinians. Why Because other countries will pay even less attention
to their plight than they usually do. Israel will be even less interested
in the sort of concessions that could bring an end to the conflict—though a
good case can be made that it should seize this opportunity to chart a new
course—and the United States will be even less likely to put real pressure on
them to do so.
In the long term, Mubarak’s departure may be beneficial, however, especially
if the new government takes a more active stance against the occupation.
And if the Palestinian Authority uses the Egyptian example as an
occasion to reconcile with Hamas and hold new elections, we might even
see a more legitimate Palestinian national movement emerge as well. But
don’t hold your breath.
TO SOON TO TELL
1. Arab Authoritarians: If I were an Arab monarch or a dictator like
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