Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • barack obama
is that we may not get the cathartic moment of Mubarak’s plane departing
to the cheers of millions of Egyptians celebrating a new era. The struggle
is now shifting to the much messier terrain of negotiations over the terms
of Egypt’s transition, with public and private jockeying over matters ranging
from the esoteric (proposed language for constitutional reforms) to the
symbolic (Mubarak’s role).
Overall, we should not overreact to the frustration over Mubarak’s hanging
on to power and the seeming retrenchment of regime power. Let’s not
forget how much has already happened—Hosni and Gamal Mubarak agreeing
not to run in the next election, in particular, meaning that the Kifaya
movement has finally achieved its primary demand dating back nearly a
decade. The administration, for its part, has continued to push hard publicly
and privately for rapid, meaningful reforms. The narrative that it has abandoned
them is untrue, but could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if it empowers
Suleiman’s “normality” gambit and stiffens the regime’s resistance to
real change. There are many tough days ahead and no guarantees that the
administration’s strategy will work. But it is still trying.
February 10
It’s hard to exaggerate how bad Hosni Mubarak’s speech today was for
Egypt. In the extended run-up to his remarks, every sign indicated that he
planned to announce his resignation: the military’s announcement that it
had taken control, the shift in state television coverage, a steady stream of
leaks about the speech. With the whole world watching, Mubarak instead
offered a meandering, confused speech promising vague constitutional
changes and defiance of foreign pressure. He offered a vaguely worded delegation
of power to Vice President Omar Suleiman, long after everyone in
Egypt had stopped listening. It is virtually impossible to conceive of a more
poorly conceived or executed speech.
It seems pretty clear that most people, from the Obama administration
to Egyptian government and opposition leaders, expected Mubarak to announce
his departure tonight—and that they had good reasons to believe
that. That turned out to be wrong. I don’t think anybody knows what’s going
on inside Mubarak’s head right now, though he certainly seems out of
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