Revolution in the Arab World - Observation of a lost soul Blog

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foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • winners, losers a way of producing sudden and unexpected reversals of fortune. Some of today’s winners might look like losers tomorrow, and vice versa. And that goes for bloggers too. Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University and a blogger at ForeignPolicy.com. 206
foreign policy • revolution in the arab world • winners, losers Revolutionary Triumph Maybe. By Nathan J. Brown Will the Egyptian “revolution,” as it is now universally called, live up to its name That is not yet clear. I do see real reasons for hope—perhaps more than any time in the time that I have studied the Arab world. But I do not see the revolution as having triumphed. Since the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, I have been traveling in Amman, Ramallah, and Nablus. My initial but overwhelming impression is that Egyptian events have inspired a wave of elation and hope that is both deep and wide and that dissipates only the closer one gets to positions of political authority. The Egyptian revolution has captivated audiences and inspired a sense of endless new possibilities. Whether it is a “new dawn” or “a dividing point in history” (as I heard it described by Jordanians and Palestinians across the political spectrum), Egyptians are seen as having brought down a rotten system as they begin to write their own future. The only question is how other Arabs (and maybe even Iranians) can join them. I am not yet so sure. It is not that the old regime still remains (though it does; the junta and the cabinet are both still staffed by pre-revolutionary appointees and only vague hints of a cabinet reshuffle have been floated). It is clear that real change of some kind will take place. But the shape of the transition has not yet been defined. A more democratic, pluralistic, participatory, public-spirited, and responsive political system is a real possibility. But so is a kinder, gentler, presidentially-dominated, liberalized authoritarianism. The danger of indefinite military rule in Egypt is small. While pundits have often proclaimed the military to be the real political power in Egypt 207
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