STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2009

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to update the CO 2climatology, there is an ongoinginternational effort to synthesize all the availablesurface CO 2data into a quality controlled databasethat can be used to examine surface CO 2variabilityover a range of time and space scales (SOCAT; http://www.socat.info/).Over the last few years, we have presented annualglobal air-sea CO 2flux estimates based on empiricalapproaches relating in situ measurements with satelliteobservations of wind and sea surface temperature(Sabine et al. 2008, 2009). The latest empiricalapproach for quantifying the air-sea CO 2exchangeutilizing in situ, climatological, and satellite data isdescribed in Park et al. (2010, manuscript submittedto Tellus B). Lags in availability of quality controlleddata streams including atmospheric CO 2, satelliteand assimilation products preclude real-time analysissuch that consistent, climate quality seasonal air-seaCO 2flux maps are only available through 2008. Theglobal mean air-sea CO 2flux for the period from 1982to 2008 gives an average contemporary net uptakeof 1.48 Pg (10 15 g) C yr -1 . Following the Gruber et al.(2009) assumption that the preindustrial steady stateocean was a source of 0.45 Pg C yr -1 , the estimatedaverage flux equates to a net ocean anthropogenicCO 2uptake of 1.93 Pg C yr -1 , consistent with the rangeof estimates (1.8–2.4 Pg-C yr -1 ) recently summarizedby Gruber et al. (2009).Using the Park et al. (2010, manuscript submittedto Tellus B) approach the global net uptake fluxfor 2008 is estimated to be 1.23 Pg C yr -1 , 0.25 Pg Cyr -1 smaller than the 27-year long-term average (Fig.3.26). The uncertainty of the empirical flux estimatesis difficult to evaluate as discussed in detail in Park etFig. 3.26. Global distribution of air-sea CO 2fluxanomalies in 2008 compared to 27-year mean valuesas calculated using the Park et al. (2010, manuscriptsubmitted to Tellus B) approach. Positive values indicateless uptake or more release of CO 2by the ocean.Fluxes are not determined for the gray regions.al. (2006), but the 2008 uptake is significantly lowerthan the 1σ interannual variability estimate of ±0.14Pg C yr -1 for the whole record. Compared to long-termaverage fluxes, 2008 generally showed less CO 2uptakeand more CO 2release with a few notable exceptionsincluding the high-latitude North Atlantic, the easternsubtropical North Pacific, and portions of theSouthern Ocean. Greater CO 2efflux was found in theEquatorial Pacific due to the strengthened upwellingof deep water rich in CO 2. As noted by Takahashi etal. (2009a) the 2008 flux estimates also show areasnear 60°S located along the edge of the seasonal seaicefield had less uptake of CO 2in summer time andmore release of CO 2in winter time. Despite a bandof increased CO 2uptake in the eastern North Pacific,overall the North Pacific uptake was lower in 2008relative to the long-term average.Several recent publications have described regionalvariations in CO 2uptake patterns, particularly in theNorth Atlantic and Southern Ocean, as the ocean carboncommunity works to distinguish secular trendsfrom natural interannual variations (e.g., LeQuere etal. 2009; Watson et al. 2009; Metzl 2009; Lenton etal. 2009). For example, recent observations suggesta rapid decrease in the CO 2uptake in the temperateNorth Atlantic. However, Thomas et al. (2008)used a general circulation model study to infer thatthe North Atlantic CO 2uptake may increase againwhen the NAO returns to a positive state, similar tothe early 1990s.The empirical approach for evaluating the annualCO 2flux gives an estimated interannual variabilityof ±0.14 Pg C yr -1 over the last three decades. Whilevariability in the North Atlantic and Southern Oceanare observed in our analyses, the largest interannualvariations are associated with ENSO changes. A negativecorrelation (R 2 ~0.68) is observed in a plot of theyearly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) values versusthe annual global air-sea CO 2uptake estimates forthe period from 1982 to 2008 (Fig. 3.27). A negativeMEI value indicates La Niña conditions and thusenhanced CO 2outgassing in the Equatorial Pacific. Inlast year’s report we described the CO 2flux patternsassociated with the moderate 2007 La Niña (Sabineet al. 2009). The conditions described here for 2008reflect the second strongest La Niña conditions in the27-year record and show an overall global ocean fluxresponse of increased outgassing that was consistentwith these conditions (Fig. 3.27).In 2009, the ENSO switched from La Niña to ElNiño conditions (chapter 4b). Interestingly, both shipboardmeasurements and moored CO 2observationsS72 | juNE 2010
Fig. 3.27. Correlation between global air-sea CO 2fluxesand the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). The red dotindicates 2008 value.along the equator are showing a pattern of sustainedCO 2outgassing even in the presence of significantpositive temperature anomalies. This switch to ElNiño conditions was too recent to evaluate with theclimate quality seasonal CO 2flux maps, but preliminaryestimates based on lower quality remotely senseddata are available to within three months of present(see http://cwcgom.aoml.noaa.gov/erddap/griddap/aomlcarbonfluxes.graph). These preliminary resultsalso suggest that large-scale equatorial fluxes are notfollowing the historical El Niño patterns.The empirical CO 2flux model generally agreeswell with GCM models in both the timing and magnitudeof the Equatorial Pacific flux anomalies associatedwith ENSO (Fig. 3.28). However, the correlationdid not hold with the latest El Niño in 2002. The GCMmodel suggested a significant decrease in outgassingfrom the Equatorial Pacific which would be expectedfrom the El Niño conditions, but did not seem to bereflected in the in situ observations or the empiricalmodel (Fig. 3.28). The mechanisms responsible forthe break down in correlation between the El Niñoand the CO 2during this last El Niño event are beinginvestigated, but the pattern seems to be repeatingwith this current 2009/10 El Niño. It could be relatedto the relative roles of horizontal advection versusvertical advection when the warming is focused onthe Central Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacificbut the data collected during the 2009/10 event willhelp us to better understand these mechanisms.2) Subsurface carbon inventoryIn the 1990s carbon samples were collected andanalyzed from approximately 95 research cruises runas part of the international World Ocean CirculationExperiment (WOCE) and the Joint Global OceanFlux Study (JGOFS). Based on these data, Sabine etal. (2004) estimated that the total inventory of anthropogenicCO 2in the ocean (C ant) in the year 1994 was118±19 Pg C, accounting for 48% of the CO 2releasedfrom fossil fuel burning between 1800 and 1994. Thisone-time global survey, however, could not provideinformation on how ocean carbon inventories haveevolved over time or how the storage has varied geographicallyover different time periods.In 2003, the U.S. CLIVAR/CO 2Repeat HydrographyProgram began reoccupying a subset of theWOCE/JGOFS ocean survey lines. The programhas identified 19 hydrographic sections distributedaround the global ocean that will be reoccupied approximatelyevery 10 years to examine changes inocean carbon and other physical and biogeochemicaltracers (http://ushydro.ucsd.edu/). This work is beingconducted in collaboration with other nations thathave similar repeat hydrography programs.In 2009 a zonal line (designated as I5) across thesouthern Indian Ocean, nominally along 32°S, wascompleted as part of the U.S. CLIVAR/CO 2RepeatHydrography Program. The top panel of Fig. 3.29shows a section of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC)along I5 in 2009. Unfortunately, very few DIC measurementswere made on the previous occupation ofI5 by the British in 2002, but DIC can be calculatedwith reasonable accuracy from the total alkalinityand spectrophotometric pH measurements that weremade. The calculated 2002 DIC distributions areshown in the middle panel of Fig. 3.29. The accuracyof the calculated DIC values is estimated to be ±4Fig. 3.28. Comparison of air-sea CO 2flux anomaliesin the Equatorial Pacific (10°S–10°N, 135°E–280°E)between the global ocean Community Climate SystemModel and the empirical model. Adapted from Park etal. (2010, manuscript submitted to Tellus B).STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2009 juNE 2010 |S73
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Luo, Jing-Jia, Research Institute f
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Tedesco, Marco, Department Earth an
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4. THE TROPICS.....................
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ABSTRACT—M. O. Baringer, D. S. Ar
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I. INTRODUCTION—M. O. Baringer an
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Table 1.1 The GCOS Essential Climat
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S18 | juNE 2010
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Stratospheric TemperatureCloudiness
Page 25: Source Datasets Sectionhttp://www.p
Page 28 and 29: HOW do WE KNOW THE WORLD HAS WARMED
Page 30 and 31: Fig. 2.6. As for Fig. 2.1 but for l
Page 32 and 33: Fig. 2.10. Change in TCWV from 2008
Page 34 and 35: Precipitation anomalies in 2009, ov
Page 36 and 37: Fig. 2.18. Seasonal SCE anomalies (
Page 38 and 39: USING SI-TRACABLE GLOBAL POSITIONIN
Page 40 and 41: 6) Lake levels—C. BirkettLake vol
Page 42 and 43: Fig. 2.30. (a) The daily AO index f
Page 45 and 46: (C) Carbon monoxide (CO)There has b
Page 47 and 48: Table 2.5. Mixing ratios, radiative
Page 50 and 51: the mid-1990s but has since levelle
Page 52 and 53: with all 42 glaciers observed retre
Page 54 and 55: of 0.1° and 5 days (Kaiser et al.
Page 56 and 57: Fig. 3.1. (a) Yearly mean SSTAs in
Page 58 and 59: (Fig. 3.3c). It is interesting that
Page 60 and 61: strong there, consistent with anoma
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Page 64 and 65: is to cause SST to rise if oceanic
Page 66 and 67: egions around the subtropical salin
Page 68 and 69: Fig 3.17. Principal empirical ortho
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Page 72 and 73: Fig. 3.22. (top) The 2009 SSH anoma
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Page 78 and 79: Fig. 3.31. (a) Average MODIS-Aqua C
Page 80 and 81: latitudes, chlorophyll and thermal
Page 83 and 84: Fig. 4.4. (a) Anomalous 850-hPa win
Page 85 and 86: (Fig. 4.6). These include four MJO
Page 87 and 88: Fig. 4.8. NOAA’s ACE index expres
Page 89 and 90: Fig. 4.14. ASO 2009: Anomalous 200-
Page 91 and 92: Fig. 4.17. The tracks of all TCs th
Page 93 and 94: Several previous studies have shown
Page 95 and 96: followed by TY Linfa and TS Nangka
Page 97 and 98: The Philippines were severely affec
Page 99 and 100: The historical SIO TC data is proba
Page 101 and 102: Fig. 4.26. Global anomalies of TCHP
Page 103 and 104: degree resolution NASA TRMM rainfal
Page 105 and 106: F i g. 4.32 . TRMM (a) mean and (b)
Page 107 and 108: THE forgotten sub-BASIN—THE centr
Page 109 and 110: 5. THE ARCTIC—J. Richter-Menge, E
Page 111 and 112: and North America (south of 55° la
Page 113 and 114: Fig. 5.8. 2007-09 Atlantic water la
Page 115 and 116: d. Sea ice cover—D. Perovich, R.
Page 117 and 118: e. Land1) Vegetation—D. A. Walker
Page 119 and 120: Fig. 5.18. Total annual river disch
Page 121 and 122: negative SCD anomalies were evident
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(QuikSCAT, 2000-09) microwave remot
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6. ANTARCTICAa. Overview—R. L. Fo
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(SCAR) report ‘Antarctic Climate
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these stations in April, August, an
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e. 2008-2009 Seasonal melt extent a
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positive ice-season duration anomal
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7. REGIONAL CLIMATESa. Introduction
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first half of the year (January-Jun
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its second wettest such period. Sev
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California began the year with mode
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The first drought occurred in March
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Fig. 7.8. (a) Annual mean temperatu
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Fig. 7.11. (a) Annual mean temperat
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EXTREME rainfall and the flood of t
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Fig. 7.14. Composite for standardiz
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Fig. 7.17. Daily maximum temperatur
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(ii) PrecipitationDecember to Febru
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For Zimbabwe, the rainfall season,
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Fig. 7.28. Annual mean temperature
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Fig. 7.31. Seasonal anomalies (1961
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(1706-2009), and new national recor
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cold in southern and central Finlan
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EXCEPTIONAL storm strikes northern
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7.32b). April was particularly mild
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to -44 о С) persisted in southern
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Fig. 7.39. Weather conditions in De
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on the 1971-2000 climatology) for a
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excess rainfall, while 11 subdivisi
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4) Southwest Asia(i) Iraq—M. Roge
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Wales. The warmth was particularly
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The most significant severe thunder
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mm thick, which fell on parts of No
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and Vanua Levu islands (Fiji) as a
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Table 7.5. Maximum temperature anom
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8. SEASONAL SUMMARIES—Mike Halper
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Fig. 8.5. Jun-Aug 2009 (top) surfac
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTSIn addition to the m
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CFCCFC-11CFC-12CH 4Chl satCIIFENClC
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OAFlux Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea
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Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao,
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Cangialosi, J. P., and L. A. Avila,
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Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leat
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Hudson, J. M. G., and G. H. R. Henr
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Landsea, C. W., and W. M. Gray, 199
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Meinen, C. S., M. O. Baringer, and
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Ramaswamy, V., M. D. Schwarzkopf, W
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——, ——, T. C. Peterson, and
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Wang, L., C. Derksen, and R. Brown,
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Monthly average temperature anomali
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2009

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