Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Development 75of global gross domestic product (United Nations World Tourism Organization, 2009).In the U.S. alone, total travel expenditures totaled $715.87 billion in 2010 and are projectedto reach $815.7 billion in 2011 (U.S. Travel Association, 2011). Significant travel andrecreation activities in turn produce GHG emissions that are relatively significant andlikely to increase. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (2008) estimatedthat international and domestic tourism represented between 3.9 and 6.0 percent, with abest estimate of 4.9 percent, of global greenhouse emissions in 2005.Climate change, coupled with other environmental, economic, and social factors,could significantly impact travelers’ selection of tourist destinations and the quality ofthose destination experiences. Broadly, these climate impacts can be characterized asfollows:• Changes in the length and quality of seasons, which could affect climate-dependenttourism such as destinations offering beach vacations;• Direct effects on key tourist attractions such as coral reefs through ocean acidification,which could reduce tourists’ demand for certain locations;• Climate change-related impacts on water availability, biodiversity loss,increased severity of extreme weather-related events, increasing incidences ofvector-borne diseases, and damages to infrastructure, all of which are likely tohit coastal tourism destinations sensitive to such events particularly hard;• Increased transportation and fuel costs associated with efforts to reduce GHGemissions, which could reduce tourism and alter travel patterns; and• Economic, political, and social instability in some coastal regions, which could inturn negatively affect tourism in these areas.Climate change impacts on tourism and recreation in coastal and other vulnerableareas will vary significantly according to region. For instance, some of Florida’s top touristattractions, including the Everglades and Florida Keys, are threatened by these challenges(Stanton & Ackerman, 2007). One recent study has estimated that lost tourismrevenue could total $9 billion by 2025 and $40 billion by 2050 (Stanton & Ackerman,2007). The effects of climate change on the tourism industry will not be exclusively negative.In Maine, coastal tourism actually could increase due to warmer summer months inwhich more individuals might visit the state’s beaches (Maine Department of EnvironmentalProtection, 2011).In 2010, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) released a report outlining acoordinated effort by the industry to address climate change. The report included someof the following recommendations for travel and tourism companies:• Develop and implement sustainable business practices;• Provide incentives for customers to reduce their energy usage;• Adopt environmental management systems to continually measure energyusage and greenhouse gas emissions; and• Encourage the investment community to develop financial products that areclosely linked to sustainable projects in the sector.
76 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilitiesReal EstateSince 1980, 43 percent of single-family building permits and 51 percent of multi-familybuilding permits in the U.S. were issued in coastal counties (Crossett et al., 2004), whichis nearshore real estate that is susceptible to damages tied to sea-level rise and coastalstorms. The assessment of economic impacts associated with accelerated sea-level riseand increased storm intensity is an extension of shoreline-change modeling that hasbeen in effect since the 1980s with early studies at Galveston (Leatherman, 1984), OceanCity (Titus, 1985), Sea Bright New Jersey (Kyper & Sorenson, 1985), Charleston (Davidson& Kana, 1988), and Myrtle Beach (London & Volonte, 1991). An early effort to expandto larger regional-scale assessments by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencyentitled “Maps of Lands Vulnerable to Sea-level Rise” was developed to identify areasalong the Atlantic and Gulf coasts that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. At a 1.5 meter riseit was estimated that 58,000 square kilometers along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts wouldbe inundated (Titus & Richman, 2001).A more recent interagency assessment entitled “Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-level rise:A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region” simulated a 1 meter sea-level rise across the regionrunning from New York through Virginia (CCSP, 2009a). The assessment estimated thata 1 meter sea-level rise would impact between 837,070 and 3,244,670 people in the region,assuming that the population is evenly distributed within the census units. A totalof between 439,480 and 1,769,710 owner- and renter-occupied houses would be affectedand between 34,720 and 66,590 hectares of land area would be inundated by a one metersea-level rise. The high and low estimates are attributed to uncertainty associated withdigital elevation maps that give a range of high and low elevations.The difficulty in assessing real estate damages on a larger regional scale is tied to thevariability in capturing both physical and socio-economic change at that scale. Averagingdamages across larger geographic areas is difficult because of regional-scale variationsin population density and property values and inconsistencies between countyassessment data. Studies must advance the geographic coverage beyond local case studiesto address state and regional policy issues.In Florida, studies by Stanton and Ackerman (2007) and Harrington and Walton(2007) estimate economic impacts of sea-level rise along the state’s coastline. The Stantonand Ackerman study estimates losses for the state as a whole with runs based on twoscenarios: 1) a business-as-usual scenario with a sea-level rise of 45 inches over the 2000baseline by the year 2100 and 2) a rapid stabilization scenario that assumes a 50 percentreduction in GHG emissions by the year 2050, which would result in a more modest seveninch sea-level rise. Incorporating trends from recent storm occurrences, Stanton andAckerman estimate $24 billion and 18 deaths in the year 2050 under the rapid responsescenario and $49 billion in damages and 37 deaths in the business-as-usual scenario.The study by Harrington and Walton estimated impacts for six coastal counties:Dade, Dixie, Duval, Escambia, Monroe, and Wakulla. The low sea level scenario is basedon historical tidal gauge data ranging from 9.96 to 13.56 inches and a high scenario of upto 25.56 inches by the year 2080 based on IPCC high-end scenarios. The study estimatedthe value of land at risk due to accelerated sea-level rise for three of the counties: Dade,Duval, and Escambia. $70 billion would be at risk in populous Dade County; in Duvaland Escambia Counties, the property at risk is estimated to be worth $30.6 million and
Page 1:
National Climate Assessment Regiona
Page 5 and 6:
© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
Page 8:
Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
Page 11 and 12:
Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
Page 16 and 17:
ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
Page 18 and 19:
4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
Page 20 and 21:
Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
Page 22 and 23:
AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
Page 26 and 27:
Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
Page 28 and 29:
Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
Page 30 and 31:
Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
Page 34:
Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
Page 40 and 41:
Introduction and Context 9coastal w
Page 42 and 43:
Physical Climate Forces 11fffffffff
Page 44 and 45:
Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
Page 46 and 47:
Physical Climate Forces 15Sea-level
Page 48 and 49:
Physical Climate Forces 17maintain
Page 50 and 51:
Physical Climate Forces 19These low
Page 52 and 53:
Physical Climate Forces 21Figure 2-
Page 54 and 55:
Physical Climate Forces 23that surv
Page 56 and 57: Physical Climate Forces 25Table 2-2
Page 58 and 59: Physical Climate Forces 27Most of t
Page 60 and 61: Physical Climate Forces 29(low to m
Page 62 and 63: Physical Climate Forces 31A number
Page 64 and 65: Physical Climate Forces 33off the c
Page 66 and 67: Physical Climate Forces 35in these
Page 68 and 69: Physical Climate Forces 37this diff
Page 70 and 71: Physical Climate Forces 39in input
Page 72 and 73: Physical Climate Forces 41Intensifi
Page 74 and 75: Physical Climate Forces 43depth qua
Page 76 and 77: Physical Climate Forces 45precipita
Page 78 and 79: Physical Climate Forces 47Sea and w
Page 80 and 81: Physical Climate Forces 49by sea ic
Page 82 and 83: Physical Climate Forces 51niche ero
Page 84 and 85: Vulnerability and Impacts on Natura
Page 98 and 99: Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
Page 100 and 101: Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
Page 103 and 104: 72 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and
Page 105: 74 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and
Page 129 and 130: Chapter 5Adaptation and MitigationK
Page 131 and 132: 100 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
Page 157 and 158:
126 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, an
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
ReferencesAbuodha, P. & Woodroffe,
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217:
Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
show all

Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?