Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by variation in another, and the combined influence of multiple stressors canresult in unexpected ecological changes if populations or ecosystems are pushed beyonda critical threshold or tipping point (Harley et al., 2006; Lubchenco & Petes, 2010). Boththeoretical and empirical examples of thresholds are rising and increasing knowledgeabout how climate and non-climate stressors interact to propel sudden shifts in ecosystems.These examples also show that many of the responses of natural systems arelinked to those of human systems.Key FindingsffffffffffffffffffffMultiple stressors interact at the coast, which directly impacts natural resources.The responses of natural coastal systems to climate change are complex andsubject to nonlinear changes and tipping points. Many of these responsesare heavily influenced by the way they are linked with human systems. HighConfidence.Wetland ecosystems are vulnerable to relative rise in water levels and projectedincreases in storm activity in zones of significant human use. High Confidence.Mangrove range will expand as minimum temperatures increase. HighConfidence.Coastal forests will tend to migrate upslope and poleward where they are able tokeep pace with changing habitat conditions. High Confidence.The structure and functioning of estuary and coastal lagoon systems will changewith alterations in habitat suitability and the timing of long-standing processes.High Confidence.Dynamic barrier island landscapes naturally migrate in response to stormactivity and sea-level rise. This process will be confounded by human alterations.High Confidence.Because of altered sediment supplies and local subsidence, deltas, and thebiodiversity they support, are at risk to drowning during rising sea levels. HighConfidence.Mudflats are susceptible to threshold changes caused by the combined effectsof sea-level rise, temperature, land use, altered flows, and increased nutrientrunoff. High Confidence.Complex interactions between physical and biological factors, which makeresponses to climate change difficult to predict, have been demonstrated inrocky shore communities. High Confidence.Sea ice ecosystems are already being adversely affected by the loss of summersea ice. Further changes are expected. High Confidence.Vulnerability and Impacts on Human DevelopmentSocietal vulnerability of U.S. coasts is comprised of the vulnerabilities of economic sectorsand associated livelihoods, water resources, energy, transportation, national defense,
xxviiiCoastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilitiesinvestments in homes and other buildings, and the health and well-being of a diverseconcentration of people from natives to recent immigrants and from the very poor tothe tremendously wealthy. The interactions of climate-related vulnerabilities with otherstressors such as economic downturn, environmental degradation, or pressures for developmentpose further analytical challenges. Because coastal watershed counties housea majority of U.S. cities, a significant percentage of the nation’s population may be morevulnerable to impacts under climate change and face loss of jobs, supply chain interruptions,and threats to public health, safety, and well-being as a result.Key FindingsffffffffffffExpanding economic and population exposure along the coast significantlyincreases the risk of harm and exposes already vulnerable communities to theimpacts of climate change. Since 1980, roughly half of the nation’s new residentialbuilding permits were issued in coastal counties, which substantially increasesvulnerability and risk of loss and adds to already populated and densely developedmetropolitan areas. High Confidence.The full measure of human vulnerability and risk is comprised of the vulnerabilitiesof human development, economic sectors, associated livelihoods, andhuman well-being. The interactions of climate-related vulnerabilities with otherstressors in the coastal zone pose analytical challenges when coupled with thelack of quantitative, multi-stressor vulnerability assessments. High Confidence.Storm surge flooding and sea-level rise pose significant threats to public andprivate infrastructure that provides energy, sewage treatment, clean water, andtransportation of people and goods. These factors increase threats to publichealth, safety, and employment in the coastal zone. High Confidence.Systematic incorporation of climate risk into the insurance industry’s rate-settingpractices and other business investment decisions could present a cost-effectiveway to deal with low probability, high severity weather events. Without reform,the financial risks associated with both private and public hazard insurance areexpected to increase as a result of expected climate change and sea-level rise.High Confidence.Expected public health impacts include a decline in seafood quality, shifts indisease patterns and increases in rates of heat-related morbidity. Better predictionsof coastal related public health risks will require sustained multi-disciplinarycollaboration among researchers and health practitioners in the climate,oceanography, veterinary, and public health sciences. Moderate Confidence.Although the Department of Defense (DoD) has started to consider the impactsof climate change on coastal installations, operations, and military readiness, theDoD requires actionable climate information and projections at mission-relevanttemporal and spatial scales to maintain effective training, deployment, and forcesustainment capabilities. High Confidence.
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Page 11 and 12: Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
Page 16 and 17: ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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Physical Climate Forces 47Sea and w
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Natura
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
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Chapter 5Adaptation and MitigationK
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ReferencesAbuodha, P. & Woodroffe,
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
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