Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Physical Climate Forces 41Intensification of the Hydrologic CycleOne of the primary drivers for ongoing and expected future changes in precipitationpatterns is a warming-induced intensification of the hydrologic cycle (Held & Soden,2006; Trenberth, 1999). Intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a consequence warmerair holding more moisture following the Clausius-Clapeyron relation (see Figure 2-10and Box 2-1). Evidence has been reported for an ongoing intensification of the hydrologiccycle based on the observational record on a global basis (Giorgi et al., 2011; Huntington,2006, 2010; Rawlins et al., 2010; Syed et al., 2010; Wentz et al., 2007). Intensificationof the hydrologic cycle heightens the likelihood that the rates of evapotranspiration andprecipitation will both increase on a global scale; however, wet areas are likely to getwetter and drier areas may get drier (Trenberth, 2011).One concern relating to climate change impacts is the resiliency of a system underchanges in weather forcings. Two types of climate change forcings are of importancein examining the resiliency of a system. The first is examining the ability of the systemto endure or adapt given long term gradual trends. As the more likely precipitationreturn period events slowly change, study is required to determine whether the hydrologic/ecologic/anthropogenicsystem is able to cope and maintain its identity or whetheropportunistic actors external to the system are able to invade and change the system.The second climate change effect lies in the ability of the system to cope with extremeFigure 2-10 Linear trends in annualtotal precipitation amount over the20th century at 643 stations acrossthe USA, where the trend magnitudeand significance is computed using(a) Kendall’s tau statistic and (b)bootstrapping of the OLSR residuals.The changes are expressed as achange in percent per decade. In eachframe, the diameter of the symbolscales linearly with the magnitudeof the trend. If the symbol is a filledblue dot, the trend is positive; if it isa red circle, the trend is negative; agrey cross is shown, if the trend isnot statistically significant at the 90thconfidence level. Source: Pryor et al.,2009.
42 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilitiesBox 2-1The Clausius-Clapeyron RelationThe Clausius-Clapeyron relation is a basic physicallaw that characterizes the transition between twogiven phases of matter, which, in this context, isthe transition between water vapor and liquidwater. As a consequence of this relation, the waterholdingcapacity of Earth’s atmosphere increasesby about 7 percent° C -1 increase in air temperature(Held & Soden, 2000). In other words, warmer airholds more water; thus, more moisture is availableto supply heavier and longer-lasting precipitationevents (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). However, theactual sensitivity of the relation, or how the “realworld” will respond to warming, is uncertainbecause of energy limitations (Allen & Ingram,2001). In addition to the obvious implications forincreasing storm intensity two other importantconsequences should be noted: (1) amplificationof warming through the water vapor feedback,and (2) increases in heat stress due to increases inspecific humidity.events. Extreme events can precipitate sudden and significant change in fundamentalphysical processes that promulgate throughout the system. Groundwater impactsto drought are an example of this effect studied by Peterson and colleagues (2009)who found that a significant enough drought period could fundamentally changea stable groundwater level enough such that plant communities dependent uponthe groundwater would not be able to adapt or survive. These two modes of climatechange impacts bear significance on all aspects of the anthropogenic and ecologicuses of water.Changes in Precipitation AmountThe use of different metrics to describe “extreme” precipitation and analyses overdifferent time periods and different criteria for including or excluding individualstation data complicates an assessment of regional trends and comparisons amongstudies. Pryor et al. (2009) analyzed the spatial coherence of changes in annual andextreme precipitation patterns across the U.S. over the 20th century. The results showthat changes in precipitation patterns vary both at the regional scale and the statescale. General trends shown from the analysis are that annual total precipitation,number of precipitation days, and extreme event precipitation amounts are increasingin the coastal areas of the Great Lakes, the Texas/Louisiana coast, and, to a lesserextent, in northern California/Oregon/Washington and in the New England states.The southeast region generally had relatively stable precipitation statistics. Douglasand Fairbank (2011) analyzed trend in extreme precipitation in New England andfound evidence for a trend towards increasing maximum annual precipitation ina 24-hour period from 1970 to 2008 at some stations, especially in coastal areas ofsouthern New England. Douglas and Fairbank compared the 100-year precipitation
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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ReferencesAbuodha, P. & Woodroffe,
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
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