Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Chesapeake Bay Case Study 127Table A-1: Projected changes in the Bay’s temperature, precipitation, and sea levelImpactProjected shorttermchange(2010-2039)Projected mediumtermchange (2040-2069)Projected longtermchange (2070-2099)Remarks about UncertaintyTemperature +0.9°C to +1.5°C+1.7°C to +3.7°C+2.7°C to +6.7°C (A2)+2.1°C to 4.9°C (B2)Very likely; warming simulatedfor all models in all future periodsAnnualPrecipitation -1% to +3% -5% to -9% -9% to +15% (A2)-4% to +10% (B2)Although annual precipitationprojections from single modelsinclude both increases anddecreases, the consensus ofmodels calls for increases in thewinter and springSea-level riseNot available forChesapeake BayNot available forChesapeake Bay700-1600 mm(global+localsubsidence, by2100)Very likely; projection includesChesapeake Bay subsidence(estimated at 2 mm/yr)range in sea-level rise primarily reflects the range in warming projected by various emissionscenarios. Uncertainty language in Table A-1 is taken from Najjar et al. (2010); “verylikely” corresponds to changes with 90-99% likelihood.Temperature. Temperatures in the Bay are likely to increase throughout the 21stcentury (Table A-1). The range of projected temperature changes reflects both differencesin projected warming across climate models in response to a single greenhousegas emissions scenario and differences due to multiple emissions scenarios. The latter isa particularly important driver of the relatively large range in the projections for the endof the 21st century.Although specific projections for water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay are not currentlyavailable, regional atmospheric temperatures are well correlated to water temperatures;therefore, increases in water temperature are also expected (Najjar et al., 2010).In addition to changes in mean temperature, the frequency and intensity of extremeheat events are likely to increase. Heat waves, defined as the longest period in the yearof at least five consecutive days with maximum temperature at least 5°C higher than theclimatology of the same calendar day, are projected to increase along the east coast ofNorth America, including the mid-Atlantic, by more than two standard deviations by2100 under the A1B emissions scenario (Meehl et al., 2007).
128 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilitiesPrecipitation. Although the means of several climate model projections show anincrease in annual precipitation in the Bay, the spread is relatively wide across the models(see Figure A-1). The range in precipitation projections is likely due to the Bay’slocation; the Mid-Atlantic region is positioned between subtropical areas expected tobecome drier and higher-latitude regions expected to become wetter (Najjar et al., 2010).Although most models project these broad changes, the precise latitude that dividesareas of increasing and decreasing precipitation is uncertain.Figure A-1 Annual and seasonal temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) changes averaged overthe Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 2070–2099. The period 1971–2000 is used as the baseline for calculatingchange. Projections correspond to the A2 emission scenario. (Source: Najjar et al., 2010, 2009).Consensus among models exists regarding precipitation increases in the winter andspring seasons. In addition, consensus exists that precipitation intensity, defined as theamount of rain falling during a season or year divided by the number of rainy days,will increase, consistent with expected changes for most of the mid- and high-latitudes(Meehl et al., 2007). Projections also suggest a greater number of droughts arising froman increase in the number of dry days and enhancement of evapotranspiration fromhigher temperatures (Hayhoe et al., 2007; Najjar et al., 2010).Sea level. Rates of local sea-level rise in the Bay in the 21st century are likely to begreater than globally-averaged sea-level rise. During the 20th century, the average rateof sea level in the Bay was 3.5 mm/yr with a range of 2.7 to 4.5 mm/yr, which was nearlydouble the globally-averaged rate (Zervas, 2001). The enhanced rate of sea-level rise inthe Bay is likely due to long-term land subsidence (Davis & Mitrovica, 1996).
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
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Introduction and Context 9coastal w
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Physical Climate Forces 11fffffffff
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Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 15Sea-level
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Physical Climate Forces 17maintain
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Physical Climate Forces 19These low
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Physical Climate Forces 21Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 23that surv
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Physical Climate Forces 25Table 2-2
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Physical Climate Forces 27Most of t
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Physical Climate Forces 29(low to m
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Physical Climate Forces 31A number
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Physical Climate Forces 33off the c
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Physical Climate Forces 35in these
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Physical Climate Forces 37this diff
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Physical Climate Forces 39in input
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Physical Climate Forces 41Intensifi
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Physical Climate Forces 43depth qua
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Physical Climate Forces 45precipita
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Physical Climate Forces 47Sea and w
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Physical Climate Forces 49by sea ic
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Physical Climate Forces 51niche ero
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Natura
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
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