Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Chapter 6Information Gaps and Science Neededto Support Sustainable CoastsAs discussed in the prior chapters, climate change is altering ecosystems on a globalscale and impacting human welfare and health. The effects are highly varied and mostpronounced along coasts. Furthermore, impacts to coastal regions are likely to be highlyvariable and accelerated in decades ahead. A key issue for coastal resource managersis to identify how, where, and when to adapt to the changes that will result from sealevelrise and changes in climate. These require cost-effective methods that benefit orminimize impacts to both the natural environment and human populations. Another importantissue is deciding how to fund such measures. To facilitate adaptation decisions,policy makers need credible scientific information. Predicting sea-level rise impactssuch as shoreline change, wetland loss, and other ecosystem impacts with a high degreeof confidence and precision is not possible at this time although the general scientificunderstanding of coastal response to climate change is well established.Related effects of climate change, including changed storm regimes, temperature,precipitation, runoff, drought, and sediment supply add to the difficulty of providingplace-specific, accurate, and reliable information. Lack of understanding of cumulativemulti-stressor interactions in ecosystems and the mechanisms of thresholds shifts alsoinhibits predictions of future conditions. An integrated scientific program of sea levelstudies that seeks to learn from the historic and recent geologic past and monitors ongoingphysical and environmental changes will improve the level of knowledge andreduce the uncertainty about potential responses of coasts to sea-level rise and otherdrivers of coastal change. Outcomes of both natural- and social-scientific research willalso support decision making and adaptive management for the coastal zone. The mainelements of a potential science strategy and their interrelationships are shown in Figure6-1, which was adapted from CCSP 4.1, Thieler et al., Chapter 14 (CCSP, 2009), followedby key research needs and tools for coastal adaptation planning that result from this assessmentand/or are adapted from publications shown below.Science Research Needs to Support Sustainable CoastalManagement 11• An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on coastal andOCS energy development is confounded by a lack of baseline information,11 (CCSP, 2009; Culver et al., 2010; NRC, 2010a,b; and resulting from this assessment and/or adapted fromMoser et al. in review;)119
120 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and VulnerabilitiesFigure 6-1 Schematic flowdiagram summarizing a sciencestrategy for improvementof scientific knowledge anddecision-making capability thatcan address the impacts offuture sea-level rise. Source:CCSP, 2009.modeling uncertainties, and complex interactions among climate drivers andimpacts that are only partially understood. Considering the current importanceof coastal and offshore energy production to the social and economic securityof the U.S., a methodical climate change vulnerability and impact assessment isneeded to support adaptation in this sector of the national economy.• Resolving uncertainties about the rates of land-ice decline is a major hindrancein modeling the rate of future sea-level rise. Although advances in observingand predicting the decline of major ice sheets have been made since thepublication of the last international assessment (IPCC, 2007), confidence inpredicting future sea-level rise has not increased substantially. The effect of
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
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Introduction and Context 9coastal w
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Physical Climate Forces 11fffffffff
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Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 15Sea-level
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Physical Climate Forces 17maintain
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Physical Climate Forces 19These low
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Physical Climate Forces 21Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 23that surv
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Physical Climate Forces 25Table 2-2
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Physical Climate Forces 27Most of t
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Physical Climate Forces 29(low to m
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Physical Climate Forces 31A number
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Physical Climate Forces 33off the c
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Physical Climate Forces 35in these
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Physical Climate Forces 37this diff
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Physical Climate Forces 39in input
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Physical Climate Forces 41Intensifi
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Physical Climate Forces 43depth qua
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Physical Climate Forces 45precipita
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Physical Climate Forces 47Sea and w
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Physical Climate Forces 49by sea ic
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Physical Climate Forces 51niche ero
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Natura
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
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