Vulnerability <strong>and</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> on Human Development 91precipitation, temperature, <strong>and</strong> humidity will shift habitats that allow insect <strong>and</strong> animalvectors to survive <strong>and</strong> transmit disease in new, previously unsuitable areas. <strong>Coastal</strong><strong>and</strong> marine changes will affect ocean <strong>and</strong> coastal ecosystems by influencing communitystructure, biodiversity, <strong>and</strong> the growth, survival, persistence, distribution, transmission,<strong>and</strong> severity of disease-causing organisms, vectors, <strong>and</strong> marine <strong>and</strong> terrestrial animalreservoirs (CDC, 2009).Changes in climate will affect the habitat, reproduction rates, <strong>and</strong> transmission dynamicsfor: mosquitoes that carry malaria, yellow fever, <strong>and</strong> dengue; ticks that carryLyme disease; <strong>and</strong> rodents that carry a variety of diseases such as those related to HantaVirus <strong>and</strong> plague. As the habitats for these disease vectors are expected to shift northward,so too does the disease risk (Portier et al., 2010). The range of mosquito vectorsis expected to shift northward with warmer temperatures <strong>and</strong> humidity, coupled withchanges in coastal habitats <strong>and</strong> sea level. For instance, the habitat for two malaria vectors,Anopheles albimanus <strong>and</strong> Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, which is currently restrictedto warmer climates, will exp<strong>and</strong> northward into the U.S., but extreme conditions suchas prolonged drought or excessively elevated temperatures can also bring that cycle to astop <strong>and</strong> reduce risk in those areas. With the loss of predators, which changes predatorpreyrelationships, insect <strong>and</strong> marine <strong>and</strong> terrestrial animal vectors <strong>and</strong> reservoirs mayincrease or shift their range, which would necessitate either chemical or mechanical controls(CDC, 2009).How much the recent dengue outbreaks in the U.S. are related to climate variabilityis unclear, but climate is likely one of the drivers (CDC, 2012). Similarly, the role ofmarine animals in zoonotic transmission under changing climate regimes is not well understood(Portier, 2010). A lack of underst<strong>and</strong>ing of these complex VBZD transmissiondynamics makes predicting climate-related changes difficult (CDC, 2009).Food <strong>and</strong> NUTRITION. <strong>Climate</strong> also poses several direct human-health risks specificallyassociated with food from oceans <strong>and</strong> estuaries from consumption of contaminatedfood, decreased nutritional value of compromised or stressed food, lack of availabilityor change of access to food, which will be especially impactful for subsistence-food animals(Portier et al., 2010). <strong>Climate</strong> change is expected to impair seafood safety throughchanges in chemical <strong>and</strong> biological risks; in particular, toxic metals, organic chemicalsresidues, algal toxins <strong>and</strong> pathogens of both humans <strong>and</strong> marine organisms (Marques,2010). <strong>Climate</strong> change may lead to changes the occurrence of Vibrio species, a type ofbacteria ubiquitous in the marine environment, some of which can cause cholera, gastrointestinalillness, <strong>and</strong> serious, if not fatal, wound infections. Vibrio outbreaks have beenrelated to changes in water temperature <strong>and</strong> changes in salinity (Colwell ,2008; Emch,2008; Johnson, 2010; Turner, 2009) <strong>and</strong> can be monitored <strong>and</strong> predicted with a combinationof in-situ <strong>and</strong> satellite observations (Blackwell, 2008; Phillips, 2007).The abundance <strong>and</strong> distribution of fish stocks are known to change as water temperatures<strong>and</strong> circulation patterns change. This affects human health directly in termsof available protein as well as economic productivity <strong>and</strong> cultural or tribal aspects ofcoastal-community health. In addition, little is known about the changes in nutritionalquality or health of the fish as related to climate (Portier et al., 2010).Sentinel HABITATS <strong>and</strong> SPECIES. Key habitats <strong>and</strong> certain marine mammals can
92 <strong>Coastal</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong>, <strong>Adaptation</strong>, <strong>and</strong> <strong>Vulnerabilities</strong>signal climate-related change in coastal conditions that can affect human health (Bossart,2011; Rose, 2009). Sentinel marine mammals can serve as integrative integrators of human-healthrisks; for instance, domoic acid (DA) exposure <strong>and</strong> related str<strong>and</strong>ing <strong>and</strong>health risks in sea lions off the coast of California provide insight into human-healthrisks of DA exposure (Goldstein, 2009). Information from monitoring sentinel tidalcreeks can demonstrate the need for screening of shellfish <strong>and</strong> other seafood for biotoxins,pathogens, or chemical pollutants (Garner, 2009).In summary, the impacts on human health <strong>and</strong> well-being are complicated, are mediatedby our individual- <strong>and</strong> social-behavioral constructs, <strong>and</strong> must be considered inthe larger social, political, <strong>and</strong> cultural context. Although scientific advances in this fieldare being made, they are slow, incremental, <strong>and</strong> insufficient in size, scope, <strong>and</strong> durationto inform the science <strong>and</strong> policy choices that lie ahead. This is due in large part to thelong-term nature <strong>and</strong> extent of the research collaborations required as well as the lack ofsustained assistance, which should include the collection <strong>and</strong> maintenance of long-termphysical, biological, <strong>and</strong> public health data that can be used for monitoring <strong>and</strong> researchto give us early warning indications <strong>and</strong> inform longer-term risk predictions (Jochens,2010; Portier, 2010).4.5: Implications for <strong>Coastal</strong> Military Installations <strong>and</strong> Readiness<strong>Climate</strong>-related changes in global <strong>and</strong> regional temperatures, precipitation patterns, <strong>and</strong>sea level, as well as increasing coastal storm extremes <strong>and</strong> extended polar ice melt seasons,can impact Department of Defense (DoD) coastal installations <strong>and</strong> associated militaryreadiness in numerous ways, including:• Diminished capacity to sustain troop combat operational readiness if training<strong>and</strong> testing opportunities are reduced at coastal military installations;• Comprised readiness, especially during extreme climatic events, of militarypersonnel, facilities, <strong>and</strong> materiel assets for global power projection via combatservice support, which is dependent, in part, on secure <strong>and</strong> properly functioningcoastal installations <strong>and</strong>, in some cases, supporting civil transportationinfrastructure; <strong>and</strong>• Increased costs, inefficiencies, <strong>and</strong> response time for military operations in thecoastal zone due to loss or degradation of natural resources <strong>and</strong> infrastructureat coastal installations as a result of sea-level rise or changes in the intensity ofclimate extremes.In addition, sprawl, incompatible l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong> other forms of encroachment on- <strong>and</strong>off-installation may operate in synergistic combination with climate change <strong>and</strong> havethe potential to overwhelm the adaptive capacity of installations (DoD, 2011).<strong>Coastal</strong> Military Installation <strong>Climate</strong>- <strong>and</strong> Global-change ChallengesThe National Intelligence Council (NIC, 2008) explored the national security implicationsof climate change in select countries <strong>and</strong> regions to characterize the extent that
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
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