Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Chesapeake Bay Case Study 131summer hypoxia may reflect climate-driven changes in stratification (see below) whileslight decreases during late summer hypoxia may reflect reductions in nutrient loading.Temperature and oxygen solubility. Warmer temperatures decrease the solubility of oxygenin water. During summertime conditions, oxygen saturation below the pycnoclineis sensitive to warming, with saturation concentrations dropping -0.16 mg/L for eachdegree of warming. Thus, for 5°C of warming, waters that might be severely hypoxic (
132 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilitiesnegative relationship between temperature and algal blooms for Pseudo-nitzschia, whichis capable of producing the toxic domoic acid that poisons shellfish and causes neurologicaldamage in humans.Submerged AQUATIC VEGETATION. Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) servesimportant functions in the Bay, providing habitats for many aquatic organisms, takingup nutrients, and stabilizing sediments. SAV in the Bay is composed of numerous differentplant species with variable tolerances for temperature, salinity, and other environmentalconditions.Climate can affect SAV directly, and through its influence on the Bay’s biogeochemistry,SAV can be detrimentally affected by high temperatures. In 2005, significant die-offof Zostera marina occurred following a period of high summer temperatures (Orth et al.,2010). SAV growth can also be retarded by high concentrations of suspended sedimentsor by growth of microorganisms that block sunlight. As a result, increases in rainfall andstreamflow that raise sediment and nutrient levels can reduce water clarity and SAVabundance (Najjar et al., 2010).Salinity gradients within the Bay already influence the types of SAV species thatgrow in different regions, with more salt-tolerant species found in the lower reaches ofthe Bay. Changes in salinity due to sea-level rise or changes in precipitation could alterthe distribution of species (Najjar at al., 2010). Similarly, increases in carbon dioxide mayfavor growth in some species of SAV provided sufficient light is available, which wouldalso contribute to changes in species distributions (Najjar et al., 2010).Estuarine WETLANDS. The consequences of sea-level rise for wetlands are highlyuncertain. The extent to which accretion and migration of wetlands, which would actto maintain or increase their acreage, will be offset by inundation of existing wetlandsis unclear (Najjar et al., 2010). Observations of vegetative changes suggest that loss maybe favored (Najjar et al., 2010; Perry & Hershner, 1999), although increases in carbondioxide and temperature could assist the growth of marsh vegetation and enhance wetlandaccretion (Najjar et al., 2010). Regardless of changes in acreage, more frequent inundationmay alter species composition and favor the proliferation of invasive speciessuch as Phragmites australis (Najjar et al., 2010; U.S. EPA, 2008). Overall, changes forwetlands will be strongly influenced by changes in human land use; development andshoreline hardening can inhibit wetland migration (Najjar et al., 2010).Fish. Climate change is likely to alter the distribution and abundances of the Bay’s variousfish species. For fish that are tolerant of warmer temperatures or are vulnerable toparticularly cold winters, warming could extend the length of the growing season andact as a benefit (Najjar et al., 2010), but warming could contract the geographic range ofcold-temperature fish. Warming is also likely to have numerous indirect effects on fish;for example, changes in habitat as well as the timing and availability of prey and predatorscould lead to shifts in species composition in the Bay. Recent observations show thatsome fish pathogens have been more successful at surviving over the winter; if warmingcontinues this trend, then fish illness and mortality may increase (Najjar et al., 2010).Like warming, changes in salinity could also have impacts on the distribution andrelative abundance of prey and predators. Najjar et al. (2010) note that sea nettles
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
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Introduction and Context 9coastal w
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Physical Climate Forces 11fffffffff
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Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 15Sea-level
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Physical Climate Forces 17maintain
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Physical Climate Forces 19These low
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Physical Climate Forces 21Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 23that surv
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Physical Climate Forces 25Table 2-2
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Physical Climate Forces 27Most of t
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Physical Climate Forces 29(low to m
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Physical Climate Forces 31A number
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Physical Climate Forces 33off the c
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Physical Climate Forces 35in these
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Physical Climate Forces 37this diff
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Physical Climate Forces 39in input
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Physical Climate Forces 41Intensifi
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Physical Climate Forces 43depth qua
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Physical Climate Forces 45precipita
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Physical Climate Forces 47Sea and w
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Physical Climate Forces 49by sea ic
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Physical Climate Forces 51niche ero
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Natura
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
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