Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Vulnerability and Impacts on Natural Resources 55Figure 3-2 Trends in climatic forcing (air temperature, precipitation, sea level), subsequent hydrology,and water quality response in the San Francisco Estuary. Source: Cloern et al., 2011.Climatic changes that decrease surface water availability and/or increase water demandwill increase salinity intrusion in coastal aquifers through direct and indirect effects.Loáiciga et al. (2011) assessed salinity intrusion scenarios in a modeling study ofthe Seaside Area groundwater aquifer near Monterey, California. They found that theposition of the human-use threshold level of 10,000 mg/L isohaline was more sensitiveto groundwater extraction rates than sea-level rise. This indicates that in some cases, atmosphericfactors including precipitation and snow thickness, and socio-economic factorssuch as population and land use, diminish total water supply and increase demand,which may increase salinity intrusion more than sea-level rise.Estuarine Water Quality Compromised by Multiple Climate DriversEstuarine water quality, in terms of eutrophication and hypoxia, is greatly affected bymulti-stressor interactions. Currently, approximately 250 hypoxic, or low-dissolved oxygen,dead zones exist in U.S. coastal and Great Lake waters (Figure 3-3). Hypoxia maybe initiated and/or worsened by high rates of primary productivity spurred by increasesin nutrient loading, called eutrophication. After studying a number of watersheds,Howarth et al. (2011) indicated that riverine-discharge increases due to climate change
56 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilitieswill increase net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs to coastal waters, thereby increasing eutrophicationand hypoxia. Climate change, especially warming, may also make systemsmore susceptible to development of hypoxia through enhanced water column stratification,decreased solubility of oxygen, and increased metabolism and mineralizationrates. High-precipitation storms, which are on the increase (see Chapter 2 section 7 thisreport), increase stratification and organic matter flushed into estuarine and coastal systemsfrom the watershed; algal blooms can result from the nutrient pulses they injectinto estuarine and coastal ecosystems (Paerl et al., 2006a) and massive hypoxia can betriggered by such events (Justic et al., 2007; Paerl et al., 2006b). For the Mississippi Riverbasin associated with the northern Gulf of Mexico seasonal dead zone, climate predictionssuggest a 20 percent increase in river discharge (Miller & Russell, 1992) that wouldlead to elevated nutrient loading, a 50 percent increase in primary production, and expansionof the oxygen-depleted area (Justic et al., 1996). All factors related to climatechange will progressively lead to an onset of hypoxia earlier in the season and longerperiods of hypoxia over time (Boesch et al., 2007)Figure 3-3 Overall eutrophic condition of the nation’s estuaries and change. Source: Bricker et al.,2007.
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
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ReferencesAbuodha, P. & Woodroffe,
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
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