Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Information Gaps and Science Needed to Support Sustainable Coasts 123• Definitions to establish a common language to discuss climate impacts andadaptation strategies;• Tools to educate the public on the science, impacts, probability, and risk;• Guidance and best practices for the planning process; and• Tools for facilitation and conflict management.Monitoring and MODELING Tools. Tools for monitoring and modeling currentand future environmental conditions include:• Estimates of sea-level rise that are useful at regional and local levels for comparabilityacross jurisdictional boundaries;• Standards and data architecture to integrate existing databases of observationsof water levels and other relevant data;• Advanced models to improve scientific understanding and allow for betterquantification of uncertainities:−−Storm surge models with wave measurements;−−Advanced climate and earth-system models;−−Improved estimates of past and projected future climate-forcing agents;−−Geomorphic models;−−Geospatial models for sea-level rise;−−Flooding/inundation models;−−Habitat models;−−Long-term erosion and accretion models; and−−El Niño Southern Oscillation/climatological impact projections.• Downscaling techniques for these models for use in regional or smaller scalescenarios.Visualization and SCENARIO-BUILDING Tools. The tools that would helpcommunities identify and explore alternative adaptation solutions include:• Visualizations using familiar viewers such as Google Earth for different sea-levelrise, storm frequency, and inundation scenarios that are interactive, offer planarand oblique views, and show critical infrastructure, relevant landmarks, andother information that allows communities to understand impacts;• Definitions and analysis of economic impacts and loss;• Conversions of vulnerability into risk information;• Assessments of economic, social, and physical risk;• Valuations of ecosystem services in monetary and nonmonetary terms; and• Scenario evaluations that:−−Identify key assumptions;−−Test alternative outcomes;
124 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities−−−−Identify signposts and thresholds based on monitoring data; andEvaluate policy tradeoffs based on key unknowns.Implementation Tools. Tools useful to build institutional capacity and implementadaptation include:• Long-term policy analysis tools to help choose among options;• Database of case studies and best practices that can be queried;• Resources such as a clearinghouse or points of contact to understand agencyactivities and potential funding sources;• Evaluation tools to assess the effectiveness of adaptation strategies;• Operational tools that address current conditions and short-term risk;• Engineering tools for coastal protection, relocation, and restoration; and• Evaluation tools to assess the effectiveness of implementation of adaptationstrategies.Future Research – Local vs. Regional Studies, Infrastructure, Monitoring, andCo-BenefitsThe research on coastal vulnerability includes some regional studies using comparableindicators and methods and an array of locally-oriented case studies. Although thesetwo approaches provide valuable information about social vulnerability, an importantresearch gap remains regarding their ability to inform decision making about risk-basedadaptation. The local case studies generally engage the more specific issues within acommunity but fail to offer comparability across larger areas (Frazier et al., 2010b; Noss,2011; Tang et al., 2011). The regional approaches provide that comparability by relyingon commonly collected indicators such as demographics, but they are simultaneouslylimited in the types of locally-specific considerations they are able to incorporate consistently.Addressing the need for comparability and specificity to inform adaptation decisionmaking at local, regional, and national scales is a key challenge in this area.A robust coastal monitoring, surveillance, and observation system that integratesphysical, biological, and key social parameters, and delivers early warning and predictiveinformation, will also be critical to better prepare for changes in climate across timescales. A sustained integrated system establishes baseline information, which is sorelyneeded to understand the impact of climate and to provide trustworthy guidance tocoastal populations following natural disasters and other climate-related changes (Jochens,2010).
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
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Introduction and Context 9coastal w
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Physical Climate Forces 11fffffffff
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Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 15Sea-level
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Physical Climate Forces 17maintain
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Physical Climate Forces 19These low
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Physical Climate Forces 21Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 23that surv
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Physical Climate Forces 25Table 2-2
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Physical Climate Forces 27Most of t
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Physical Climate Forces 29(low to m
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Physical Climate Forces 31A number
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Physical Climate Forces 33off the c
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Physical Climate Forces 35in these
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Physical Climate Forces 37this diff
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Physical Climate Forces 39in input
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Physical Climate Forces 41Intensifi
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Physical Climate Forces 43depth qua
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Physical Climate Forces 45precipita
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Physical Climate Forces 47Sea and w
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Physical Climate Forces 49by sea ic
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Physical Climate Forces 51niche ero
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Natura
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
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