Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Physical Climate Forces 51niche erosion/block collapse are expected. Thaw slumping will also accelerate due towarming of the atmosphere (factor 3), but this process would not be directly changed byoceanic changes.A final Arctic coastal process that appears to be affected by climate change is themigration of barrier islands in the Alaska Beaufort Sea in the Arctic Ocean. In the past,these barrier islands have been observed to migrate westward due to the predominanteastern winds and waves. Ravens and Lee (2007) provide evidence that the western endof one of these islands, Narwhal Island, is migrating at an accelerating rate. Accordingto GIS analysis and GPS surveys, between 1955 and 1990, the western end of the islandmoved at about 5 meters/year. However, in the last two decades between 1990 and 2007,it has moved at 25 meters/year on average.The recently published IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of ExtremeEvents and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation “Report for Policy Makers”(IPCC, 2012) indicates that temperature increases and increased variability, includinggreater potential for extremes, will continue to be strong for coastal regions. ThisIPCC result is based on an average of results from a series of climate projection modelsoperated by different research groups and represents the benchmark for assessing whatis likely to occur with continued climate warming.
Chapter 3Vulnerability and Impacts on NaturalResourcesKey FindingsffffffffffffffffffffMultiple stressors interact at the coast, which directly impacts natural resources.The responses of natural coastal systems to climate change are complex andsubject to nonlinear changes and tipping points. Many of these responsesare heavily influenced by the way they are linked with human systems. HighConfidence.Wetland ecosystems are vulnerable to relative rise in water levels and projectedincreases in storm activity in zones of significant human use. High Confidence.Mangrove range will expand as minimum temperatures increase. HighConfidence.Coastal forests will tend to migrate upslope and poleward where they are able tokeep pace with changing habitat conditions. High Confidence.The structure and functioning of estuary and coastal lagoon systems will changewith alterations in habitat suitability and the timing of long-standing processes.High Confidence.Dynamic barrier island landscapes naturally migrate in response to stormactivity and sea-level rise. This process will be confounded by human alterations.High Confidence.Because of altered sediment supplies and local subsidence, deltas, and thebiodiversity they support, are at risk to drowning during rising sea levels. HighConfidence.Mudflats are susceptible to threshold changes caused by the combined effectsof sea-level rise, temperature, land use, altered flows, and increased nutrientrunoff. High Confidence.Complex interactions between physical and biological factors, which makeresponses to climate change difficult to predict, have been demonstrated inrocky shore communities. High Confidence.Sea ice ecosystems are already being adversely affected by the loss of summersea ice. Further changes are expected. High Confidence.52
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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ReferencesAbuodha, P. & Woodroffe,
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
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