Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Vulnerability and Impacts on Natural Resources 65on the snow den for warmth. About two-thirds of the world’s polar bears are projectedto be gone by the middle of this century. In 75 years, projections suggest that the wildpolar bear population will be gone entirely from Alaska (Janetos et al., 2008).ConclusionsThreshold shifts in ecosystems can have severe negative consequences for ecosystemservices, economic sustainability, and human health and well-being (Harley et al., 2006;Lubchenco & Petes, 2010; MEA, 2005). Recent papers have further advanced the dialogueon key research directions for elucidating threshold mechanisms and identifyingearly-warning signals of impending abrupt transitions (Groffman et al., 2006; Schefferet al., 2009); however, even though single-species responses to particular stressors oftenare fairly well known, mechanistic understanding of cumulative effects of multi-stressorinteractions, especially at the community level, remains elusive. A recent review of topresearch priorities for conservation and management cites the need to expand scientificunderstanding of multi-stressor interactions and thresholds (Fleishman et al., 2011).This includes methods to identify the triggers of threshold responses and to anticipatethe likely trajectory of post-threshold states under a range of future scenarios of climateand land-use change (Briske et al., 2006). Such information will be key to managers’ abilityto manage for change when threshold shifts occur (West et al., 2009).As the natural resources of coastal systems respond to changing climatic conditions,human modification and management of these systems is a major factor in the characterof the response. In many cases the capacity of coastal systems to reposition or reshapethemselves in response to climate drivers is constrained by the physical modificationsmade to accommodate and sustain human uses. This adds an additional level of complexityto forecasts of ecosystem responses. It also highlights the need for system-levelthinking as we work to adapt to the evolving conditions.
Chapter 4Vulnerability and Impacts on HumanDevelopmentKey FindingsffffffffffffExpanding economic and population exposure along the coast significantlyincreases the risk of harm and exposes already vulnerable communities to theimpacts of climate change. Since 1980, roughly half of the nation’s new residentialbuilding permits were issued in coastal counties, which substantially increasesvulnerability and risk of loss and adds to already populated and densely developedmetropolitan areas. High Confidence.The full measure of human vulnerability and risk is comprised of the vulnerabilitiesof human development, economic sectors, associated livelihoods, andhuman well-being. The interactions of climate-related vulnerabilities with otherstressors in the coastal zone pose analytical challenges when coupled with thelack of quantitative, multi-stressor vulnerability assessments. High Confidence.Storm surge flooding and sea-level rise pose significant threats to public andprivate infrastructure that provides energy, sewage treatment, clean water, andtransportation of people and goods. These factors increase threats to publichealth, safety, and employment in the coastal zone. High Confidence.Systematic incorporation of climate risk into the insurance industry’s rate-settingpractices and other business investment decisions could present a cost-effectiveway to deal with low probability, high severity weather events. Without reform,the financial risks associated with both private and public hazard insurance areexpected to increase as a result of expected climate change and sea-level rise.High Confidence.Expected public health impacts include a decline in seafood quality, shifts indisease patterns and increases in rates of heat-related morbidity. Better predictionsof coastal related public health risks will require sustained multi-disciplinarycollaboration among researchers and health practitioners in the climate,oceanography, veterinary, and public health sciences. Moderate Confidence.Although the Department of Defense (DoD) has started to consider the impactsof climate change on coastal installations, operations, and military readiness, theDoD requires actionable climate information and projections at mission-relevanttemporal and spatial scales to maintain effective training, deployment, and forcesustainment capabilities. High Confidence.66
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
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Introduction and Context 9coastal w
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Physical Climate Forces 11fffffffff
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Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
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ReferencesAbuodha, P. & Woodroffe,
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
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