Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Development 93anticipated effects may contribute to inter- and intra-state migrations, cause economichardships, result in escalated social tensions, and lead to state instabilities. The onset ofsuch crises has the potential for impacting and evolving DoD’s roles and missions. Moreresearch and study is needed to assess climate-environment-migration relationships.With a better understanding of these relationships, the readiness roles and missions ofsupporting military installations may need re-alignment to maintain U.S. national security(NIC, 2008).Coastal-installation readiness, in particular, can be challenged as a result of climaterelatedenvironmental stressors and drivers that include:• Changing weather patterns and extreme temperature, precipitation, and coastalstorm events;• Rising sea levels and subsiding or eroding land masses;• Disruptions to the biosphere that have complex repercussions on ecologicsustainability;• Evolving land and water resources use patterns and management practices onand off installation;• Production, accumulation, and migration of environmental contaminants onlands and waters; and• Loss and degradation of habitats for protected threatened and endangered fishand wildlife species (DoD, 2011).Although DoD leadership has recognized and is continuing to study these challenges,military commanders often are consumed with addressing daily tactical missionrequirements, which limits the opportunity to strategically incorporate the issuesof climate change over extended future time scales. Technical guidance and capabilitiesneeded to distill climate change information, whether as explicit predictions of futureconditions or as scenarios, to the impact level at military installations is currently insufficient,although DoD is actively pursuing study of these needs. Recent interviewsamong DoD personnel at selected installations including Fort Benning, GA and NavalBase Norfolk, VA suggest that climate change is not fully realized as an inevitable threatin the near future. Although climate change forecasts are being discussed with higherfrequency among DoD managers, a low level of awareness exists of the empirical knowledgebase supporting global climate change predictions or scenario use nor any recognitionof the need for contingency planning (Noblis, 2010). Moreover, climate change isconsidered to be a regional phenomenon with insufficient relevance for consideration atspecific local installations; in other words, most DoD managers believed that not enoughinformation was available to implement climate change planning into current managementactivities (Noblis, 2010).Deferring actions to manage potential climate change risks and uncertainties mayexacerbate future impacts; however, the impact of delayed action can be addressed toenable:1. Sustaining development of effective plans, programs, and budgets;
94 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities2. Carrying out effective systems analysis;3. Developing credible cost estimates; and4. Creating timely and meaningful future defense plans (Cordesman, 2009).A comprehensive, integrated, and science-based approach is needed to quantify systems-scaleoperational risks of climate change for achieving military decision-makingeffectiveness (Noblis, 2010).Coastal Installation Vulnerabilities and Combat Service Support ReadinessThe 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review calls for a comprehensive assessment of all installationsto assess the potential impacts of climate change on DoD missions and toadapt as required (DoD, 2010). Vulnerabilities of coastal installations can be manifestedthrough impacts to natural resources that support operations and training exercises,deterioration of built infrastructure and equipment that support combat service supply,and direct and indirect impacts of climate-related disasters (Pollner et al., 2009). Allof these vulnerabilities have practical implications for military readiness. Diminishedquality of training and testing could lead to degradation of military personnel understandingand skill in executing combat strategies and tactics, whereas impairments to acoastal installation’s combat service supply mission has the potential to diminish globalpowerprojection capability during a crisis response.Coastal storms and sea-level rise in combination have the potential to impair installationinfrastructure that supports combat service support missions. Accelerated sea-levelrise will exacerbate the episodic effects of coastal storms, cause inundation of low-lyingland areas, induce sustained geomorphologic and environmental changes, and alter harbortopography, bathymetry, currents and salinity. These events may impact access toand use of military installation assets and increase maintenance requirements for coastalfacilities. Resulting requirements may include increased dredging operations, dredgedmaterials placement needs, modification of dock facilities, and the need to harden facilitiesand coastal zones against hazard effects. Installations in which assets are locatedclose to current sea levels will be subject to increased groundwater salinity, higher watertables, and increases in periodic flooding, which will require increased stormwaterpumping and drainage capacity, maintenance for corrosion control, and flood riskreduction. In addition, the regional interdependency of installations during extremecoastal-storm events with surrounding civil electrical power and communication networks,roads, railways, and potable water distribution systems may result in increasedinstallation vulnerability due to climate impacts on systems and facilities external to theinstallation.Coastal storm risk assessment and management of military assets can be informed bythe characterization of extreme storm events based on historical experience and stormsurgemodeling. By contrast, sea-level rise is gradual even though the rates of changethat are expected this century (see Chapter 2) are unprecedented in terms of historicalU.S. military experience. Moreover, the uncertainties about future sea-level-rise ratespreclude the establishment of a best estimate of sea-level rise during the remainder ofthis century; hence, a single, most probable trajectory for adaptation to sea-level rise isnot available. This poses a non-stationary risk to coastal military installations, because
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
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Introduction and Context 9coastal w
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Physical Climate Forces 11fffffffff
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Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 15Sea-level
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Physical Climate Forces 17maintain
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Physical Climate Forces 19These low
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Physical Climate Forces 21Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 23that surv
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Physical Climate Forces 25Table 2-2
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Physical Climate Forces 27Most of t
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Physical Climate Forces 29(low to m
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Physical Climate Forces 31A number
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Physical Climate Forces 33off the c
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Physical Climate Forces 35in these
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Physical Climate Forces 37this diff
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Physical Climate Forces 39in input
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Physical Climate Forces 41Intensifi
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ReferencesAbuodha, P. & Woodroffe,
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vu
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