Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities - Climate ...

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Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Development 95the fundamental operation requirements of many of these facilities are coastal- or waterside-dependent.A range of global sea-level change scenarios (see Chapter 2) was developedby an expert panel convened as part of the NCA to provide Assessment teams withscenarios for risk-based vulnerability and impact assessment. The four sea-level-changescenarios provided range from 0.2 meter to 2.0 meters through 2100. Based on the risktolerance of their decisions, stakeholders such as DoD can decide which of these scenariosto use to guide their vulnerability impact assessment and adaptation decisions.Increasingly, many coastal installations are taking on additional missions and tenantunits with force restructuring and demands of overseas contingency operations. Increasednumbers of installation tenants and training mission requirements may furtherexacerbate training capacity and scheduling flexibility limits imposed by ongoing climatechange. The potential for climate change-related installation realignment or closure,which also could translate into regional economic losses, is also a risk.Operations and Training Readiness and Natural Resource ImpactsImpacts of climate change on natural resources can reduce the capacity of military installationsto support operations and training by changing training conditions and degradingthe utility of these assets for training. Physical constraints on access to training landsand waters resulting from extreme weather events have short-term effects on trainingand operations and also can damage roads and other infrastructure. Extreme heat eventscan require reductions in personnel activity levels. Extreme heat and drought events andhigh fire risk conditions also can preclude use of pyrotechnics, grenade simulators, andlive-fire training with tracers to reduce the chance of wildfires. Extreme storm eventsand associated lightning, wind, and flooding risks can temporarily limit access to anddegrade coastal lands and waters for training as well as personnel and materiel transit.Impacts of climate change on installation natural resources can reduce the ability ofinstallations to meet environmental regulatory requirements, which can lead to restrictionson access to training and testing lands and waters. Because current research indicatesthat global climate change is already having significant impacts on both vegetationpatterns across North America (Coops & Waring, 2001; Waring et al., 2011) and globalbird-population distributions (Wormworth & Mallon, 2006), understanding this situationand providing better training and information to DoD managers is relevant. Habitattransition or modification as a result of climate change may result in increased challengesfor installation managers to maintain the population status of species that arelisted as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act of 1973 (7U.S.C. § 136, 16 U.S.C. § 1531 et seq.), while avoiding the increased potential for listingsof species that are not currently listed. The construction of compensatory natural resourcesmanagement features can be costly and has the potential to escalate. Terrestrialland management and training exercises could become restricted spatially and, as a result,cause increased local ground disturbances and changes that degrade water qualityby increasing waterway sedimentation and nutrient loading. In addition, amphibioustraining space could become restricted as habitats and buffers critical for sea turtles andshore birds decrease or as changes in barrier island and coastal marsh configuration dueto sea-level rise and storm activity reduce available training space. These changes inquality, quantity, and distribution of natural assets may affect the DoD’s ability to meet
96 Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilitiesoperational tempos and reduce scheduling flexibility, such as in reduction of installationcapacity to support land-based and amphibious training exercises.Increased temperatures and potential changes in precipitation patterns may requiremodification of prescribed burn programs, which are an important component of listedand at-risk species management on many installations. Increased coastal storm intensityand sea-level rise may cause losses and conversions of wetlands, barrier islands, andshorelines to open water and, if accompanied by high runoff events, could result in synergisticimpacts to natural and built infrastructure.DoD Requirements and Programs for Vulnerability and Impact Assessments andAdaptation PlanningThree levels of risk-based impacts on DoD installations can be identified. At the highestlevel of impact, an installation may no longer be able to support current and futuremission requirements. At an intermediate level of impact, missions could still beaccomplished but would require adaptive actions to prevent or remediate impacts,which could carry high costs and require significant time for planning and implementation.Other impacts at this level could be acute, such as coastal-flooding events, withhigh short-term costs and short-term disruption, but would not prevent mission accomplishmentover the long-term. At the lowest level of impact, operations may need to bemodified but could be accomplished within established processes with no significantcommitment of additional resources.DoD requires actionable climate information and projections at mission-relevant temporaland spatial scales for installation planning and adaptation. Climate informationand decision tools are needed to support priority installation functions for maintainingeffective testing, training, deployment, and force-sustainment capabilities, sustainingthe built environment, complying with regulatory requirements, and keeping personnelsafe. This will require increased understanding of the extent to which DoD planning anddecision processes are influenced by climatic and meteorological factors. For climatedata and analyses tools to be most relevant to DoD needs, they must be scalable acrossall DoD command echelons and provide comprehensive and comparable analysesacross installations and regions for effective decision making. Effective use of availableand new information and decision-support capabilities will require inter-agency coordinationregionally and nationally. In addition, interdependencies of installation facilitieswith surrounding areas will require close coordination with other affected stakeholders.With proactive vulnerability and impact assessment, asset vulnerabilities and theirsensitivities to changing stressors can be identified and serve as the necessary basis forplanning and implementing resilient and adaptive management actions. Challengesinclude:• Scientifically informing critical decisions that must be made through expertanalysis of spatial-temporal complexities and uncertainties of stressor impactson objectives-based installation mission performance that can serve the need forbaseline assessment characterization at both the screening and detailed levels;• Formulation, technical evaluation, distinctive comparison, and selection ofcompeting alternative management actions;
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National Climate Assessment Regiona
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© 2012 The National Oceanic and At
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Coastal Impacts, Adaptation,and Vul
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Chapter 3Lead Author: Carlton H. He
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ContentsKey TermsAcronymsCommunicat
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4.4 Human Health Impacts and Implic
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Key TermsxixExposure 3 - The nature
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AcronymsxxiNAO - North Atlantic Osc
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Executive Summaryxxvffffffffffffffo
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Executive Summaryxxviiweakened by v
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Executive SummaryxxixAdaptation and
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Introduction and Context 3irrigatio
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Introduction and Context 9coastal w
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Physical Climate Forces 11fffffffff
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Physical Climate Forces 13Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 15Sea-level
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Physical Climate Forces 17maintain
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Physical Climate Forces 19These low
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Physical Climate Forces 21Figure 2-
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Physical Climate Forces 23that surv
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Physical Climate Forces 25Table 2-2
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Physical Climate Forces 27Most of t
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Physical Climate Forces 29(low to m
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Physical Climate Forces 31A number
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Physical Climate Forces 33off the c
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Physical Climate Forces 35in these
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Physical Climate Forces 37this diff
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Physical Climate Forces 39in input
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Physical Climate Forces 41Intensifi
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Physical Climate Forces 43depth qua
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