Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:<strong>Warning</strong> <strong>Analysis</strong> For The In<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>Age</strong>:Rethinking The Intelligence ProcessDr. Norman Kahn*Dr. Bodnar’s work identifies and integrates a number of elements critical to <strong>the</strong>Intelligence Community’s understanding of ef<strong>for</strong>ts on <strong>the</strong> part of both state andnon-state actors to develop weapons of mass destruction. Specifically, he identifieshuman sources, signals intelligence, and open-source exploitation as key factors;and he develops a potent argument <strong>for</strong> integrating in<strong>for</strong>mation on people,places and programs and making this in<strong>for</strong>mation available to <strong>the</strong> intelligenceanalyst in <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>m of automated relational databases. This approach, which hedefines as “multidimensional analysis,” is already in use by savvy analysts. Itswidespread acceptance clearly will enhance <strong>the</strong> Community’s ability to providedeeper and more sophisticated input to policymakers who bear <strong>the</strong> ultimateresponsibility of responding to national security threats.F. J. Hughes**We are indeed at <strong>the</strong> threshold of a paradigm shift in intelligence analysis. Theresearch work of <strong>the</strong> Advanced Research Development Activity (ARDA), anIntelligence-Community-wide ef<strong>for</strong>t, is seeking to define how we should advanceour strategies, operational concepts, and organizations in a fashion correspondingto Dr. Bodnar’s vision. ARDA brings a potent dynamic into play that focuses onDiscovery, Exploitation, and <strong>Analysis</strong> of intelligence in<strong>for</strong>mation. Bodnar is aharbinger of a powerful shift in thinking that can shape <strong>the</strong> future of intelligencein a world that has changed dramatically. His work represents a significant step<strong>for</strong>ward in intelligence studies and serves as an invaluable reference <strong>for</strong> tomorrow’sintelligence analysts who confront <strong>the</strong> task of implementing complex judgmentalanalysis.*Program Manager, Bio-Defense Programs, Intelligence Technology Innovation Center.**Faculty Member, Joint Military Intelligence College.xiii