Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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Massive Data?” However, the Case Studies, done using only MS Word and PowerPointas data-management tools, have indicated that MDA can surmount bothNIMD challenges, massive quantities of data and too much dimensionality to thedata, mainly due to the top-down approach.The top-down modeling inherent in MDA is a way to turn perceivedweaknesses of the NIMD challenge into strengths—mainly by transcendingNewtonian assumptions.WMD or CBRNE programs are strategic programs and, as described above,require the nation or terrorist organization to formulate and implement a plan thatprojects ahead two OODA Cycles—a Logistics Cycle to build the weapons andan Operations Cycle to field and potentially employ them. In the Logistics Cycle,the order required to build organizations to assemble WMD or CBRNE meansthat the plan must be implemented and remain valid for the years or decades ittakes to go from conception of the plan to maturation of the infrastructure to buildthe WMD or CBRNE weapons, to the implementation of the plan and fielding ofthe weapons using that new infrastructure. Therefore, the long-range planningrequired in any WMD program is its greatest vulnerability to intelligence analysis.Hence the more “massive” the historical data set, the better.BW Program Vulnerabilities toMultidimensional Analysis• Building biological weapons requiresplanning that spans the entireorganizational infrastructure. Leadershipmust coordinate people and organizationsthat normally do not interact.• Key personnel include: strategicleadership, operational leadership,technical support, and logistics support.• Materials and supplies need to betransported among facilities.• Key persons in a BW program areprofessionals and usually travel.• BW technology is virtually all dual-use.• Research phase of weapon life cycle isopen-source.Additionally, while the problemof dual-use in all WMDprograms complicates the analysisproblem for WMD versusconventional programs, thedual-use nature of the programsmeans that considerablymore data are available onthose programs than might beexpected. Much of a WMDprogram may be “hidden inplain sight” either because thedual-use really does imply twouses—that the microbiologistis making both the vaccine forlegitimate health care as wellas the BW agent—or is a resultof denial and deception. Ineither case, data are availableeven if it is hard to interpret.115
Again, more data means a better 6-D model which will be more interpretablegiven more data.On the other hand, the dimensionality of the data makes its interpretation problematic.But if the methodology for building the 6-D hierarchical model isstraightforward, no matter how tedious it is, it will with persistence provide betterassessments.Reconstructing a Proliferation NetworkThe first step in using MDA to develop a 6-D model for a WMD program is toconstruct a rough flow chart or timeline for the process to account for therequired steps in assembling the weapon. For example, any nuclear weaponsprogram depends on the acquisition of fissionable materials, so any flow chartfor a nuclear weapons program must include either uranium enrichment or plutoniumrecycling from spent reactor fuel or alternative methods to buy or stealthe purified elements.Once the basic timeline is roughed out, a postulated organizational chart isconstructed to account for all the technical, logistics, and operational skillsrequired to assemble the weapon. Again, the organization may do its ownresearch on WMD payloads or attempt to buy or steal components; the roughchart must account for all possibilities. Any intelligence that is currently availableis then assessed and a very rough analysis is begun by ascribing individual “factoids”to a specific process on the timeline and/or the organization that is responsiblefor that process on the organization chart. The aim at this point is to be ableto link key personnel or key organizations with steps on the WMD timeline. Thetimeline will certainly have many gaps at this point. However, if only a few keyevents on the timeline and the associated personnel and organizations can beidentified, these few entities can be used as seeds to begin to build the 6-D model.Once a few personnel and organizations have been identified, resumes or organizationalhistories are constructed on them. Hopefully the timelines produced willidentify a few links in the overall timeline and organizational chart. Note thatmaps are not very helpful at this stage because the interactions found are likely tobe separated widely in both time and space.116
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165: The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
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Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
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Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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