Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing Industrial-age tools and the printed wordUsing Information-age tools and the electronic wordSTART HERERESEARCHQUESTION?NEXT CYCLE QUESTIONKNOWLEDGEAssessmentASSESSMENTEXPOSITIONManuscriptWebpageTheoryASSESSMENTOUTLINESorted 3x5 CardDe ckHypertextDocumentASSESSMENTFORMALIZATIONPresent argument tosupport assessment.RefinedHypothesisEVIDENCE FILEUnsorted 3x5 CardDeckRelationalDatabaseEVIDENCE MARSHALLINGSort evidence to support,discredit, or modifyRoughHypothesisDATACOLLECTIONBook/Record PileRelevant RecordSetEVIDENCE EXTRACTIONExtract relevant factsand relationships.DATADATAREPOSITORYLibraryData BaseDATA RETRIEVALRetrieverelevant books,articles, orrecordsA Scientist builds a THEORY.An warning analyst builds an ASSESSMENTin many ways similar to the biologists’ experimental method of hypothesis testingor to the classical intelligence collection cycle. However, some historiansnever collect artifacts themselves but rather use libraries to dig through documentationand records to develop new insights into historical events. Sometimesthe records are primary evidence, such as court records or archives of governmentagencies, but often the records are books published by other authors.With the advent of automated data collection, biological researchers and theIntelligence Community are both amassing archives in databases similar to historicalarchives stored in libraries. Therefore, the methodologies of bioinformaticsand intelligence analysis will ultimately have more in common with a132
historian’s library research than the traditional experimental or collectionapproach.At some time in school, we learned to do historical library research. Themethodology used in that kind of research can serve as a model for the kind ofthinking and methods that can prove fruitful in both bioinformatics and intelligenceanalysis. We only need to update the approach from using libraries,printed documents, and 3”x5” index cards to using databases, electronicrecords, and data manipulation tools. The strategies and hypothesis testingmethods we learned in library research are very applicable to bioinformatics andInformation-Age intelligence.hypothesis. n. ... 2. A proposition or principle put forth or stated(without any reference to its correspondence with fact) merely as abasis for reasoning or argument, or as a premise from which to drawa conclusion; a supposition.The Oxford English DictionaryData Retrieval. When a research question is asked or a research problem isaddressed, the first step is to form a preliminary hypothesis that can provide ananswer to that question. Then, using that preliminary hypothesis, the researchergoes to the data repository to retrieve records relevant to the question at hand tobuild a data collection.The purpose of this step is to collect records relevant to the hypothesis or problem.The researcher now has a data collection—or “shoebox”—that containsrecords for further evaluation, some directly and some which may not be lookedat until this step is repeated for a new or modified hypothesis after testing theoriginal one.■ Industrial-Age Methodology. The researcher went to the library and,by using catalogs and indices, retrieved books and documents relevantto the problem. These were taken home or set aside for future use.■ Information-Age Methodology. The researcher logs onto the Internet,online library, or database and using Boolean search tools identifiesand retrieves records relevant to the problem. These are then downloadedand set aside for future use.The value-added in building the data collection is that the researcher has alocal dataset that contains records relevant to the question or problem. As he orshe extracts evidence and builds cases for various hypotheses, this dataset—a“shoebox” full of valuable “stuff”—is a very important resource to use to findnew evidence as hypotheses are discarded, modified, or built.133
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
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have been reached. “If they do A,
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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
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Efforts to date to use information
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Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
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From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
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Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
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Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
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Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
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Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
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Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
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Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
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Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
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Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
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Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175: tion, and it followed that they wer
Page 176 and 177: drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179: mal or cultural population in terms
Page 180 and 181: ■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
Page 182 and 183: By learning the lessons of Cynthia
Page 184 and 185: INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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Other Books from the Joint Military
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