Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision Energyfor Missile ProgramCivilianSectorAgenciesMilitary-Industri alComplexMilitaryPowerBasicResearchOrganizationWarheadResearchMilitaryResearchOrganizationWarheadDevelopmentWarheadProductionMilitaryProductionOrganizationMilitaryMissileCorpsDegree ofOrganizationAssemblyNATIONALORGANIZATIONMISSILEPROGRAMEngineResearchConceptionEngineDevelopmentEngineProductionMissileAssemblyMissileTestingDegree ofWeaponAssemblyMissileEmploymentTi meMaturityProgram timelines indicate a “degree of assembly” of the weapon in a WMDprogram while organization charts indicate a “degree of assembly” of people intoorganizations. These are directly related in that organizations are organized toaccomplish specific goals. For example, for a missile program the two plots overlayas shown above.The Program Timeline and Organization Chart are related in that:■ The individual steps in the Program Timeline require a specificorganization to plan and accomplish them.■ The individual organizations on the Organization Chart are arrangedto reflect the planning and coordination necessary to accomplish thespecific tasks.■ Overall coordination of any program requires coordination of theorganizations needed to accomplish its goals; therefore, any programwill require a person who is the overall leader/coordinator for that pro-93
gram. That person’s status will be above the “decision energy”required for the task.In analysis of any program, the Program Timeline and Organization Chart providecomplementary (orthogonal) visualizations:■ The Organization Chart indicates the personal and organizationalinteractions required for planning and executing the program.■ The Program Timeline indicates the actual sequence of events inaccomplishment of the program.Axiom: Organization Charts, Program Timelines, and National Mapsmust be used in an integrated manner to track the organization andoperation of networks.Additionally, there are two general guidelines that will assist the analystin perceiving the enemy’s most likely course of action through afog of deception:Separate the wheat from the chaff. Weed out from the mass of incomingmaterial all information of doubtful reliability or origin andassemble that information which is either known to be true (the“facts”) or which has come from reliable sources which have no personalaxes to grind or reasons to deceive...Keep your eyes on the hardware. In the end, the adversary mustlaunch operations with his military forces and what they do will bethe ultimate determinant of his intent. 45The objects and processes required for the operation of a network exist in a 6-D world. Biological systems and organizations are different from physical systemsin that they control energy for tasks and programs that require both planningand coordination to accomplish, and a network of interacting parts is required forthis. Thus, visualization of biological and military-political networks requires aconcerted effort to capture this.Enthalpy is a measure of the power stored in chemical bonds. Thus, buildingrequires marshaling energy, and WMD programs are basically building programs.Therefore:■ Timelines must reflect the “building” that goes on in the program by:❏ Identifying the energy and materials required to build the components ateach step of the program.45 Grabo, 131.94
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67: viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
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Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
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When young children play soccer, th
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To make matters worse, even the col
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VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
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From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
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The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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messenger to and from the edges of
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The organization of the IC in this
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Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
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From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
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Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
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Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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