Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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at an appropriate place in the timeline? Were those present the appropriate leadersin the organization which would carry out the order? Most important, doesthe infrastructure provide the capability assessed and is that capability consistentwith a plan and the historical record of how the program was built?MDA can assess intent by actions rather than words. By building a timeline fora potential WMD program one can project dual-use agent or payload programswith parallel munitions programs and later compare production and employmentreporting with previous knowledge on how the project did the R&D for theassessed weapons and with present knowledge of how the project is doing theR&D for the next generation of weapons.All those processes require planning. Planning shows intent. Assessingintent—“why” someone is doing something—is crucial to strategic warning.121
Chapter 10MODELING HOW WE MODELHow can we provide strategic analysis to build our own strategic plan? Step 2in building Warning Analysis for the Information Age is to model how we think—build and test hypotheses—to provide strategic warning so that we can thendevelop tools to help automate the process.From Responding Faster to Thinking Smarter—Strategic Analysisfor the Information AgeOur U.S. defense strategy seeks new levels of effectiveness by harnessingthe power of advanced technologies. A central premise to future militarystrategy is the formation of a system of systems (SOS) to attain dominantbattlespace knowledge. By coalescing data from collection and processingsystems, the resulting information can be integrated with systems ofweaponry and warriors for a seamless sensor-to-shooter flow. Linkingthese with the capabilities of maneuver, strike, logistics, and protectionwill allow decisionmakers at every level to respond significantly fasterthan any adversary and in any operational situation. 51Virtually every discussion of “harnessing the power of advanced technologies”ultimately comes down to defining the most critical thing that new technologieswill ultimately allow us to do. And the answer is invariably that we will be able to“respond faster.” That answer is certainly correct, but it can be very misleading ifwe are still thinking tactically in the Newtonian, Industrial-Age paradigm.//■ Idea of fast transients suggests that, in order to win, we should operateat a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries—or, better yet, getinside the adversary’s Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action timecycle or loop.//■ Why? Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable)thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries—since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or picturesthat agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm orpatterns they are competing against. 5251 Annette J. Krygiel, Behind the Wizard’s Curtain: An Integration Environment for a System ofSystems (Washington D.C., National Defense University, 1999), 1.52 Col Boyd.123
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 96 and 97: Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165: The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175: tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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