Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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tion, and it followed that they were the first Naval Officers to truly support andimplement that policy. Also, demographics dictated that until 1975 there werevirtually no Black officers in the pool of Admiral candidates. The fact that fourBlack graduates made Admiral by 1999—drawing off the classes of 1948 to 1975which graduated only 178 Blacks total—is actually a credit for integration in thatthe probability of an individual Black making Admiral was not very differentfrom that of a white classmate. 83One need only do the addition to track the progression of an RMC: changesbrought by an MTR in reference year zero will not have proponents comfortablewith them in senior leadership until almost year thirty at which point one mightexpect a change in policy and organization to begin an RMA. But the organizationwill not “think” in the new paradigm until the students of year thirty themselvesbecome senior leadership.The sail-to-steam revolution in the Navy took over half-a-century. The Navywent from sail to steam in the 1840s; the first Midshipman “born and raised” onsteamships did not make Admiral until the 1870s, including Mahan, who wouldreorient the Navy to “thinking” steamships, but it was not until the early 1900sthat everyone in the Navy was trained by the first-generation steamship Admirals.The progression of the 1845 founding of the Naval Academy to the 1910 Midshipmansteamship cruise follows the same pattern: it took Mahan, an 1859Academy graduate, to reorient his generation before they assumed leadership andbecame decisionmakers based on a steamship orientation.The segregation-to-integration revolution in the Navy is also taking half-a-century.Naval Academy graduates who were classmates of Wesley Brown in 1948“grew up” in a Navy that was always integrated—on paper at least. When theybecame Admirals in the late 1960s, going from “on paper” integration to trueintegration was not an issue because the Navy they knew was always integrated.The first truly integrated Academy classes of the mid-1970s are finally assumingsenior leadership roles as Admirals as we turn into the new century. Not only isthe number of Black Admirals increasing dramatically because of the larger candidatepool of the 1970s but also everyone in today’s Navy never knew a timewhen the Navy wasn’t integrated. Thus the reorientation process of segregationistthinking to integrationist thinking is finally reaching maturity over half-a-centuryafter Roosevelt’s order.83 Bodnar.171
When Can We Expect to Reorient from Newtonian Thinkingto Quantum Thinking?Just as Multidisciplinary Analysis predicts a lengthy process for an adversaryto change its strategic thinking, examining our own reorientations to new strategicparadigms indicates that we are subject to the same cultural and institutionallimitations on change. To predict when the RMC will emerge in the wake of thechange from Industrial-Age thinking to Information-Age thinking, one againneed only do the addition and demography.IFYou graduated from collegeBefore 1965...After 1980...You’re more comfortable calculatingthan computing.In the last science class you took,you used a slide rule.In biology class youcut up dead cats.You live in the world ofthe printed word.Your main source of news isa newspaper or possiblynetwork TVYou are most comfortable writingusing a paper and penand the written word.You’re more comfortablecomputing than calculating.In the last science class you took,you used a calculator.In biology class youanalyzed DNA.You live in the world ofthe hyperword.Your main source of news isCNN or possiblythe Web.You are most comfortable writingusing a computerand the hyperword.The MTR for the Information Age began in the 1960s with the advent ofcomputers and television and the rise of institutional science in the U.S. Thedefining chasm in Newtonian versus Quantum thinking is between those whograduated from college prior to and after the 1970s. Those who graduated priorto 1970 can no more think in terms of Information-Age technologies than thesailing-ship Admirals who learned the ropes as Midshipmen on board ship inthe 1840s could build pure steamships in the 1870s or the segregation-eraAdmirals who built their friendships in a totally white Navy of the 1920s couldthink integration in the 1950s. The class of 1975 is now just past fifty years old,which means that virtually all our senior leadership in the military and the IC is172
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
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have been reached. “If they do A,
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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
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Efforts to date to use information
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Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
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From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
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of enemy forces and that he prepare
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Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
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Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
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systems is that they are organized
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ing “power” plotted vertically
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Biological systems extract energy a
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NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
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❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
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There are two basic kinds of method
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The two kinds of models are complem
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Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
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ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
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Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
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Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
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The redundancy of the detailed kind
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This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
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■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
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Massive Data?” However, the Case
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When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 148 and 149: Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165: The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 176 and 177: drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179: mal or cultural population in terms
Page 180 and 181: ■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
Page 182 and 183: By learning the lessons of Cynthia
Page 184 and 185: INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187: Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
Page 188 and 189: OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
Page 190 and 191: WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193: Other Books from the Joint Military
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