Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATEXT records: (a) reformatted from SHOE-BOX DB by analyst, or (b) input from already METATAGGED DBs (such as thePubMed online biomedical DB).(2) Analyst feedback to adjust visual or network displays.Processing = (1) METATEXT data mining (with data mining tools for tabulardata).(2) MDA Chart presentation (such as by Analyst Notebook)Output = Presentation of: (1) text or visual displays of data mining(2) MDA chart displays (with hyperlinks to DATACOLLECTION DB for original report with highlighted markups).Analysts view the presented graphs, networks, and the like from the ENTITYDB and:■ Analyze: Analyst evaluates data outputs provided by (1) METATEXTdata mining tools or (2) MDA chart presentations or (3) link analysisdirectly from documents in the shoebox.■ Marshal Evidence: Analyst builds MDA models using maps, timelines,and organization charts, and builds HYPERTEXT documentsfor input to PRESENTATION DB.[Note that since this is all-source analysis at this point, collection analysts atNSA, NIMA, and FBIS should ideally not be expected to do this level of analysis;however, since current collaboration tools are not adequate, the collectionanalysts must do this to be able to perform the SIGINT, IMINT, or OSINT collectiontask properly].[The ENTITY DB will potentially prove to be the most valuable analytical DBin the future, but currently constitutes a huge gap in the IC’s repertoire of ITtools. A shared ENTITY DB would be the equivalent of a shared electronic 3x5card deck. Imagine if a historian were writing a new book on the Civil War and,instead of having just the library for references, could have access to an electronicversion of the 3x5 card note decks of Bruce Catton and a dozen other Civil Warhistorians, complete with original references on each. The value added would beimmense, not only in tracing hypotheses supported by Catton’s books but also intesting hypotheses he may have had and discarded (but kept the cards for futurereference) and in testing completely new hypotheses not covered in the linearthreads reported in the narratives of his books. However, as Catton’s 3x5 carddeck might have actually been a pile of highlighted copies of documents andhandwritten records, the cost of transferring these documents to electronic format144
would be enormous. The IC has many senior analysts approaching retirement agewho are the “Bruce Catton’s” of the IC. Building an ENTITY DB based on the“shoeboxes” of all the retiring IC analysts will certainly be a huge expense, but ifit is not done, all the assembled knowledge accumulated by those analysts inusing their “shoeboxes” as datasets for hypothesis testing will be lost. Potentially,it could take a “curator” several months to transcribe the “shoebox” of a singleretiring analyst into a new electronic SHOEBOX DB and ENTITY DB. However,considering that “smart” bombs are only as smart as the analyst providing the targeting,if the shoebox reformatting of a single analyst cost about $75,000, it needonly account for improving the analysis of the next generation analyst wellenough to turn a single smart bomb miss into a hit to pay for itself.](4) PRESENTATION DB = HYPERTEXT storage of analyzed records.Input = Analyst input of:(1) HYPERTEXT maps, timelines, and organization charts (which contain linksto ENTITY DB “3x5 cards” and highlighted reports in DATA COLLECTIONDB) and;(2) associated facility, organization, and project profiles, and personnel biographies.Processing = Website setup for viewing on Intelink (such as the Athena WMDsite)Output = Presentation to policymakers and warfighters either as briefs or as Websitesin the PRESENTATION DB.The challenge for IC analysis and for community resource managers for the21st Century is to be able to build IT tools that can support hypothesis testing andmultidimensional analysis and to make this multidimensional, multi-agency processwork in a collaborative environment.145
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
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MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
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Example: I see a large mammal with
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In WMD analysis, these distinctions
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Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
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Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
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Information Retrieval is Built on L
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to extract all the entities or a me
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That means that unless own ship man
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Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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analysis. A bigger database full of
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viduals subordinate their decisionm
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environment. In a world of limited
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account for any deviations from equ
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In summary:■ When the world will
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progress of that plan. If change is
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have been reached. “If they do A,
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Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
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Efforts to date to use information
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Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
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From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
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of enemy forces and that he prepare
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Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
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Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
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systems is that they are organized
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ing “power” plotted vertically
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Biological systems extract energy a
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
Page 146 and 147: ❏ Human intervention needed to ve
Page 150 and 151: Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
Page 152 and 153: When young children play soccer, th
Page 154 and 155: To make matters worse, even the col
Page 156 and 157: VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
Page 158 and 159: From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
Page 160 and 161: The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
Page 162 and 163: messenger to and from the edges of
Page 164 and 165: The organization of the IC in this
Page 166 and 167: Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
Page 168 and 169: From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
Page 170 and 171: Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
Page 172 and 173: Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
Page 174 and 175: tion, and it followed that they wer
Page 176 and 177: drawn from a generation that thinks
Page 178 and 179: mal or cultural population in terms
Page 180 and 181: ■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
Page 182 and 183: By learning the lessons of Cynthia
Page 184 and 185: INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
Page 186 and 187: Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
Page 188 and 189: OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
Page 190 and 191: WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
Page 192 and 193: Other Books from the Joint Military
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