Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...
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Faced with <strong>the</strong> task of finding <strong>the</strong> “American inventor who invented somethingsmaller than six inches” my daughter asked me to take her to <strong>the</strong> library and said,“Dad, please help me. I don’t even know where to start.” So I went to <strong>the</strong> onlinecatalog, searched <strong>for</strong> “inventor” and “invention” and by scanning <strong>the</strong> myriadtitles noticed that virtually all were tied to Library of Congress (LC) Call Number“609.” I told her we would look <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> books with “609,” we <strong>the</strong>n read <strong>the</strong> LCnumbers on <strong>the</strong> shelves until we found <strong>the</strong>m, and I started handing her books withthat number that had to do with inventors and inventions...and she did <strong>the</strong> rest...allin an afternoon’s work.What call number does <strong>the</strong> Iraqi analyst need to retrieve <strong>the</strong> data on Iraqi biologistsand microbiologists? Or even more fundamentally—if <strong>the</strong>re is a call number<strong>for</strong> Iraqi biologists, are <strong>the</strong>re any books on <strong>the</strong> topic? And once we have <strong>the</strong>names of <strong>the</strong> inventor or scientist, how do we learn more?In today’s world that is easy <strong>for</strong> finding American inventors but impossible <strong>for</strong>finding Iraqi BW scientists <strong>for</strong> several reasons:New Knowledge is Built on a Baseline of Old Knowledge Builtby HistoriansThe IC dataset is “massive” because <strong>the</strong>re are no historians to provide perspectiveon what it means.There are no classified historical baselines because <strong>the</strong>re are no historiansin <strong>the</strong> IC. Most of <strong>the</strong> intelligence data are currently in <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>m of text messagesresiding in multiple databases. The Iraqi analysts could get off to a good start on<strong>the</strong>ir project by finding classified books such as “The History of Iraqi Science,” or“A Decade of Evading <strong>the</strong> UN Weapons Inspectors.” But such books do not exist.Historians can provide an excellent baseline on many issues of interest to <strong>the</strong>intelligence analyst, but only from unclassified records. They don’t have access to<strong>the</strong> billions of text messages in IC databases, but <strong>the</strong> IC does not employ any ofits own historians to build such a baseline. And analysts do not have <strong>the</strong> time—ordon’t stay on one project long enough—to build <strong>the</strong> historical baseline that givescontext <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir current analysis. My daughter can rapidly find in<strong>for</strong>mation onAmerican inventors and <strong>the</strong>ir inventions because <strong>the</strong>re are historians writingbooks about <strong>the</strong>m; <strong>the</strong> Iraqi analysts cannot do <strong>the</strong> same because <strong>the</strong>re are no historianswriting classified books on WMD programs anywhere.IC Challenge: How can we build <strong>the</strong> historical baseline with no historians?How can we automate <strong>the</strong> function of those absent classified historians withsmart computer programs?48