Warning Analysis for the Information Age - Higgins Counterterrorism ...

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Biological systems extract energy and materials from the environment and usethem to build new components or systems. Tracking the inputs into any processstep on the Program Timeline is important because:■ The status of the entire process as well as the characteristics of theprocess can often be deduced through knowledge of the inputs. Forexample, much can be known about a missile warhead factory byknowing: how much electrical power it consumes, whether or not uraniumor plutonium is among the raw materials, the qualifications of itsengineers, or the types of equipment ordered and when they wereordered.■ Knowing the location of the process allows linking the Timeline withthe Map.■ Knowing the personnel and their organizations allows linking theTimeline with the Organization Chart.EquipmentUtilities (water, electrical power)WarheadDevelopmentWarheaddesignWarheadProductionCompletedWarheadWarheadFactoryPersonnel (Engineers, production workers)Raw materialsAxiom: Each visualization plot requires a “drill-down” capability toreflect the hierarchical nature of biological and military-politicalorganizations.All non-routine or unusual actions emanating from the national levelresult from some kind of decisions. They don’t just happen. This istrue of both military and political actions. When something unusualoccurs, particularly something that increases the adversary’s capabilityto take military action or is otherwise potentially ominous, the91
analyst should ask such questions as: What does this suggest of theadversary’s plans? What prompted him to do this? What kind of decisionhas been taken which would account for this action? 43Biological systems require an infrastructure to accomplish the Decision Cyclesrequired to extract energy from the environment, sense and respond to the environment,reproduce, and evolve. Military-political systems have the samerequirements since they are biological systems. The nested nature of the DecisionCycles that describe such systems will also be reflected in hierarchical nestedmaps, timelines, and organization charts needed to describe them. For example,the timeline for warhead production above could be further subdivided to indicatehow the design, utilities, equipment, and raw materials come together to build awarhead. Similarly, the Organization Chart for the production factory is nestedinside an organization chart for the military-industrial complex and could be subdividedinto departments and divisions and even individual leaders, engineers, orworkers.Axiom: Program Timelines and Organization Charts representorthogonal visualizations.Another simplistic approach to the decisionmaking question, whichalso occurs surprisingly frequently, is to assume that political and militarydecisions are taken by different groups and are somehow notrelated to each other... This is highly erroneous, at least in countrieswhere the national leadership exerts effective command and controlover the military forces, and it is particularly erroneous where thepolitical leadership maintains a monopoly on the decisionmaking processand the military undertakes virtually nothing on its own. 4443 Grabo, 104-10544 Grabo, 107.92
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Joint Military Intelligence College
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The Joint Military Intelligence Col
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CONTENTSAcknowledgements. . . . . .
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appreciate other distinctive elemen
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In addition to his promoting the in
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ADDITIONAL COMMENTARIES:Warning Ana
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“butter now” to build a strong
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orist groups half-a-world away mean
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intelligence and requires exhaustiv
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Chapter 2FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
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decades before the conflict when a
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or pieces of information which were
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probably been given too little atte
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warfare the army that could bring t
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Chapter 4PARADIGM SHIFTS — WHEN T
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NorthDakotaMoscowNow on the map bel
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line proponent is likely to say,
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In the Industrial Age we based our
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Let me explain by comparing the New
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ight now we have a position (potent
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The take-home message here is that
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degrees and one I took six minutes
Page 45 and 46: MESSAGE■ Suppress tendency to bui
Page 47 and 48: Example: I see a large mammal with
Page 49 and 50: In WMD analysis, these distinctions
Page 51 and 52: Chapter 6TOWARD NOVEL INTELLIGENCE
Page 53 and 54: Example 1 — An 8th Grade Science
Page 55 and 56: Information Retrieval is Built on L
Page 57 and 58: to extract all the entities or a me
Page 59 and 60: That means that unless own ship man
Page 61 and 62: Chapter 7FROM CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
Page 63: analysis. A bigger database full of
Page 66 and 67: viduals subordinate their decisionm
Page 68 and 69: environment. In a world of limited
Page 70 and 71: account for any deviations from equ
Page 72 and 73: In summary:■ When the world will
Page 74 and 75: progress of that plan. If change is
Page 76 and 77: have been reached. “If they do A,
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 8MODELING THE DECISION CYCL
Page 80 and 81: Efforts to date to use information
Page 82 and 83: Assumptions—From Industrial-Age T
Page 84 and 85: From Thinking Tactically to Thinkin
Page 86 and 87: of enemy forces and that he prepare
Page 88 and 89: Modeling Ourselves—How Can We Reo
Page 90 and 91: Chapter 9MODELING THE TARGETHow do
Page 92 and 93: systems is that they are organized
Page 94 and 95: ing “power” plotted vertically
Page 98 and 99: NationalCommandAuthorityD ecision E
Page 100 and 101: ❏ Identifying and tracking the fi
Page 102 and 103: There are two basic kinds of method
Page 104 and 105: The two kinds of models are complem
Page 106 and 107: Nation A$$Nation BMAPWhere?How?Targ
Page 108 and 109: ORGANIZATION CHARTWho?Why?TARGET NA
Page 110 and 111: Med.line (med’lin) vt. -lined, -l
Page 112 and 113: Tracking a BW or Dual-Use Biotechno
Page 114 and 115: The redundancy of the detailed kind
Page 116 and 117: This followsStage of Weapon Life Cy
Page 118 and 119: ■ Ceremonial occasions can be ver
Page 120 and 121: Massive Data?” However, the Case
Page 122 and 123: When the first pass at the known en
Page 124 and 125: Multidimensional Analysis for Strat
Page 126 and 127: at an appropriate place in the time
Page 128 and 129: When Col Boyd formulated the Decisi
Page 130 and 131: problem, warning involves an in-dep
Page 132 and 133: ■ Observe the incoming reporting.
Page 134 and 135: In the past—through the Industria
Page 136 and 137: FROM HYPOTHESIS TO ASSESSMENTUsing
Page 138 and 139: evidence. n. ... 5. Grounds for bel
Page 140 and 141: suggested guidance and models of Ma
Page 142 and 143: Using Homology Searching in Intelli
Page 144 and 145: ways can be identified in this way
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❏ Human intervention needed to ve
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Input = (1) Analyst Input of METATE
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Chapter 11MODELING OURSELVESHow can
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When young children play soccer, th
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To make matters worse, even the col
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VERY NICEBut, simply stated, what d
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From Software-Driven Tools Usage to
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The Physical WorldSense 1O O D AThe
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messenger to and from the edges of
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The organization of the IC in this
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Chapter 12GETTING THERE FROM HEREWe
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From...Bigger Faster Technology,Fig
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Chapter 13TOWARD AN INFORMATION-AGE
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Robert Fulton sailed the steamshipC
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tion, and it followed that they wer
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drawn from a generation that thinks
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mal or cultural population in terms
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■ The IC needs to hire enough IT
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By learning the lessons of Cynthia
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INDEX3x5 card deck 51,134,137,142,1
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Heisenberg, Werner 21, 111Heisenber
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OODA Cycle 12, 38, 167Actor 62,102a
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WMD 14-15, 81CBRNE 81, 114dual use
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